- Is Iraq another Vietnam ...
TPSIPOL FORUM: NETWORK DEMOCRATIC
March 2004
Is Iraq another Vietnam?
Oswaldo de Rivero (*)
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/message/17892
A wave of pessimism scab the press and political circles Americans face urban military insurgency in Iraq and the growth of U.S. casualties. Concerned, above all, the union of the Shiites and Sunnis fighters and also the total lack of conditions for transferring power to the interim Iraqi government next July first, as President Bush continues to promise.
In all the comments raise the specter of Vietnam, to the point that President of the United States has had to publicly declare that what is happening in Iraq is not what happened in Vietnam. Without doubt, the Vietnam analogy is wrong in military terms. Shiites and Sunnis fighters are not an army under a single command, militarily capable and well armed, as was the Vietcong. Nor are stocked like this with modern weapons by Soviet and Chinese allies. Also, unlike Vietnam, the fighting has not carried out in difficult tropical forests, but, rather, are urban battles that involve significant civilian casualties. Much less, low U.S. in Iraq are comparable to those suffered in Vietnam. In Iraq there are on average two to three American casualties per day, while those from Vietnam came to 70 per day, which quickly accumulated amount in thousands of lost lives and brought about the massive protest in the United States.
While military analogy with Vietnam is wrong, the analogy is not political. In fact, in Iraq as in Vietnam, U.S. occupation forces have failed to win politically, the minds and hearts of the population. In this case most of the Iraqi population as the Vietnamese reject the U.S. intervention, and even more in Iraq, most of the population identifies with the provisional government, which they consider "puppet" for having been almost appointed by the occupying power.
A year after the easy invasion of Iraq, rejecting political and armed resistance to American occupation, as in the case of Vietnam, is becoming more fierce than ever. The U.S. presence, as happened in Vietnam is failing to build a modern secular democracy. Conversely, if they had elections in Iraq today is very likely to win the Shiite faction, supported by other Islamists and the result could be an Islamic republic, but not like that of Iran, enough Koranic and far from the American vision of democracy.
The most important political analogy of Iraq to Vietnam is the desperation of the Bush administration to seek an honorable exit from Iraq, as the government sought to Johnson and Nixon in Vietnam. In pursuit of this output, the current U.S. administration, as mentioned, not finding, it will affect his popularity to the American people. A recent survey by CNN and the Times Magazine reveals that for the first time, 49% of Americans support the administration of President Bush and 51% did not approve his Iraq policy
not only the political situation in Iraq is analogous to Vietnam, but, even, one might say that it is more difficult because, at least, in Saigon, the United States had large anti-communist allies, as the armed forces and the petty bourgeoisie in South Vietnam, which States do not have today in Baghdad. In contrast, today both Sunnis and Shiites fighting the U.S. presence. Also, how U.S. occupation forces have divided their occupation in a Kurdish area, another Sunni and one Shiite further exacerbated the religious divide in the country and becoming less governable.
All this can have a powerful ally iraquizar Iraqi conflict as vietnamizó the Vietnam War. Recent units of the new Iraqi army, trained by the U.S., have refused to fight in Fallujah and Ramadi against his fellow Shiites or Sunnis. Also, many of the policemen and soldiers have deserted and some of them have begun to fight the Marines and the Army. Even members of the interim government, appointed by the U.S., have protested against the excessive repression of U.S. forces in Fallujah and have been on the brink of resignation.
In conclusion, it is becoming more difficult to transfer political power to Iraqi authorities in Baghdad that are both truly allies of the United States and have further legitimacy to the people Iraq.
Iraq today resembles more a chaotic situation and or Lebanese Palestinian intifada, where several rebel factions fought and are fighting today against the Israeli occupation, but none of these is truly representative rebel factions to negotiate an honorable exit. If American forces leave Iraq today, this country would implode into a black hole where all the factions that make today the resistance fight between them, as happened in Afghanistan when the Soviets withdrew. Iraq would then become ungovernable chaotic entity which would take shelter numerous terrorist groups.
If the U.S. occupying forces are lucky, because its opponents in Iraq, after all, are not the Vietcong, it may be that urban armed insurrection to wane as it did with looting at the beginning of the occupation of Iraq. But this does not guarantee that no new test, especially if the U.S. is excessive repression and abruptly insists on transferring sovereignty in Iraq to an interim government today has no legitimacy among the Iraqi people.
Perhaps the only way would be to seek an international departure, calling for United Nations mediation and other countries, including Muslim countries in Iraq to establish an interim government acceptable to all parties, to organize elections no later than next year and thus achieve an honorable solution to this conflict which is becoming politically, as in Vietnam, the mother of all strategic nightmares. Oswaldo de Rivero
New York, March 2004
A wave of pessimism scab the press and political circles Americans face urban military insurgency in Iraq and the growth of U.S. casualties. Concerned, above all, the union of the Shiites and Sunnis fighters and also the total lack of conditions for transferring power to the interim Iraqi government next July first, as President Bush continues to promise.
In all the comments raise the specter of Vietnam, to the point that President of the United States has had to publicly declare that what is happening in Iraq is not what happened in Vietnam. Without doubt, the Vietnam analogy is wrong in military terms. Shiites and Sunnis fighters are not an army under a single command, militarily capable and well armed, as was the Vietcong. Nor are stocked like this with modern weapons by Soviet and Chinese allies. Also, unlike Vietnam, the fighting has not carried out in difficult tropical forests, but, rather, are urban battles that involve significant civilian casualties. Much less, low U.S. in Iraq are comparable to those suffered in Vietnam. In Iraq there are on average two to three American casualties per day, while those from Vietnam came to 70 per day, which quickly accumulated amount in thousands of lost lives and brought about the massive protest in the United States.
While military analogy with Vietnam is wrong, the analogy is not political. In fact, in Iraq as in Vietnam, U.S. occupation forces have failed to win politically, the minds and hearts of the population. In this case most of the Iraqi population as the Vietnamese reject the U.S. intervention, and even more in Iraq, most of the population identifies with the provisional government, which they consider "puppet" for having been almost appointed by the occupying power.
A year after the easy invasion of Iraq, rejecting political and armed resistance to American occupation, as in the case of Vietnam, is becoming more fierce than ever. The U.S. presence, as happened in Vietnam is failing to build a modern secular democracy. Conversely, if they had elections in Iraq today is very likely to win the Shiite faction, supported by other Islamists and the result could be an Islamic republic, but not like that of Iran, enough Koranic and far from the American vision of democracy.
The most important political analogy of Iraq to Vietnam is the desperation of the Bush administration to seek an honorable exit from Iraq, as the government sought to Johnson and Nixon in Vietnam. In pursuit of this output, the current U.S. administration, as mentioned, not finding, it will affect his popularity to the American people. A recent survey by CNN and the Times Magazine reveals that for the first time, 49% of Americans support the administration of President Bush and 51% did not approve his Iraq policy
not only the political situation in Iraq is analogous to Vietnam, but, even, one might say that it is more difficult because, at least, in Saigon, the United States had large anti-communist allies, as the armed forces and the petty bourgeoisie in South Vietnam, which States do not have today in Baghdad. In contrast, today both Sunnis and Shiites fighting the U.S. presence. Also, how U.S. occupation forces have divided their occupation in a Kurdish area, another Sunni and one Shiite further exacerbated the religious divide in the country and becoming less governable.
All this can have a powerful ally iraquizar Iraqi conflict as vietnamizó the Vietnam War. Recent units of the new Iraqi army, trained by the U.S., have refused to fight in Fallujah and Ramadi against his fellow Shiites or Sunnis. Also, many of the policemen and soldiers have deserted and some of them have begun to fight the Marines and the Army. Even members of the interim government, appointed by the U.S., have protested against the excessive repression of U.S. forces in Fallujah and have been on the brink of resignation.
In conclusion, it is becoming more difficult to transfer political power to Iraqi authorities in Baghdad that are both truly allies of the United States and have further legitimacy to the people Iraq.
Iraq today resembles more a chaotic situation and or Lebanese Palestinian intifada, where several rebel factions fought and are fighting today against the Israeli occupation, but none of these is truly representative rebel factions to negotiate an honorable exit. If American forces leave Iraq today, this country would implode into a black hole where all the factions that make today the resistance fight between them, as happened in Afghanistan when the Soviets withdrew. Iraq would then become ungovernable chaotic entity which would take shelter numerous terrorist groups.
If the U.S. occupying forces are lucky, because its opponents in Iraq, after all, are not the Vietcong, it may be that urban armed insurrection to wane as it did with looting at the beginning of the occupation of Iraq. But this does not guarantee that no new test, especially if the U.S. is excessive repression and abruptly insists on transferring sovereignty in Iraq to an interim government today has no legitimacy among the Iraqi people.
Perhaps the only way would be to seek an international departure, calling for United Nations mediation and other countries, including Muslim countries in Iraq to establish an interim government acceptable to all parties, to organize elections no later than next year and thus achieve an honorable solution to this conflict which is becoming politically, as in Vietnam, the mother of all strategic nightmares. Oswaldo de Rivero
New York, March 2004
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