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The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Wall Street.

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COLUMN OSWALDO DE RIVERO
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DOSSIER
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS


The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Wall Street
geopolitical consequences. 14/11/2008


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The fall of the Berlin Wall the collapse of Wall Street.

(*) Oswaldo de Rivero

Published in the Journal Le Monde Diplomatique in its issue of November. Article submitted by the author for publication in the Democratic Network. Any reference to this information, mention the source is appreciated.

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DOSSIER: Global financial crisis

The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Wall Street.

(*) Oswaldo de Rivero

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(RED-Geneva)

When the Berlin Wall was torn down there was no private bank in the Soviet Union. Today there are many in Russia, while in the U.S., is just quasi-nationalize major banks and financial institutions. This unimaginable situation is a great trick that history has done to all who claim to know their place. So we can be sure that the international instability and lawlessness that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall have not ceased with the collapse of Wall Street.


Shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sharp ex-Soviet Director of the Institute of USA and Canada, Georgi Arbatov, said the worst damage they had caused the USSR to the United States is depriving him of an enemy . (1) The current situation seems to confirm this prediction. No enemy, the Bush administration, his neoconservative advisors, Pentagon generals and bankers on Wall Street believed the "Masters of Universe", seeking perpetual military supremacy and global financial dominance.

With the Bush administration, the Pentagon became more powerful than ever, even began to dictate the agenda of preemptive war illegal and continued arming the U.S. with a range of expensive weapons in the state of the art, to achieve supremacy against any military power, but ultimately did little to fight asymmetric conflict against terrorism. In addition, the U.S. entangled in a misguided war in Iraq, now it is physically and financially hemorrhaging.

At the same time, the bankers of Wall Street set out to invent a variety of complicated financial products that made Wall Street and the international financial system today a huge casino has collapsed at an approximate cost of $ 2.8 trillion, (2) affects millions of people including who never played in it, as is the case with the new 20 million unemployed International Labour Organization estimates there will be in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis (3).


Lack of market and market excess


The U.S. military and financial degradation, makes one think, not only in the prediction of Georgi Arbatov, but also in what he said once the physical Leo Szilard nuclear, that the two superpowers could not live without each other, that the collapse of the Soviet empire would collapse the American Empire. The truth is that this has not happened yet. However, if we examine the collapse of the USSR and current deterioration of U.S. geopolitical power we see that both are related to the market. The Berlin Wall collapsed due to lack of market and Wall Street has collapsed due to excessive market. The first resulted from a centrally planned system to supplant the market wanted and ended up planning for the shortage. The second was the result of market deregulation that led to speculation of financial products and nothing complicated clear that eventually engulf the entire global financial market.

However, the difference between the two collapses, is that the Berlin Wall and it was always centrally planned economies and brought down the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies, while the collapse of Wall Street not the end of the market economy, but an extreme form of this (deregulated finance) and it has not collapsed to the United States and its NATO allies.

Today there is no economic instrument that can replace monetary exchange of goods and services making the market. Had various forms can capitalism depending on how they regulate or not regulate the market, but the market is not a product of capitalism, but on the contrary, it is an economic instrument invented long before Jesus Christ, who in his time merchants who were already expelled from the Temple and also used the Cesar currency.

The fall of the Berlin Wall caused the disappearance of the USSR as a global superpower and made the world stage to return to Russia as a Eurasian regional power. According to Putin was a huge geopolitical cataclysm. In contrast, the collapse of Wall Street is a major geopolitical earthquake, which does not convert the U.S. into a regional power, but is strong enough to completely degrade the global unipolar power.

Indeed, the Wall Street crash and severe recession that will affect strategic military power of the United States and is degraded by the failure of the occupation and nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan as viable states and democratic. Also the financial crisis and economic downturn will make it more difficult to maintain 700 military bases the U.S. has to project its power globally. (See sidebar: "A Bankrupt Superpower")

Wall Street's collapse also occurs when the Bush administration has demolished softpower (ideological power) American. The promotion of human rights and democracy that were the foundation of the American ideology is now in tatters, after the scandals of Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, the torture and the famous "renditions" that is, the abduction of terror suspects to be sent to interview close friends in non-human rights. Softpower This destruction of the United States will further increase the rescue of Wall Street banks because it demonstrates that the U.S. does not practice the neoliberal ideology that preaches.

With the global financial crisis, the world begins to realize that neoliberalism is a false liberalism that financial markets not self-correcting, they need regulation to avoid becoming financial weapons of mass destruction. Soon also the ordinary people will realize that neoliberalism is also a false trade liberalism. The crisis, global recession and protectionist tendencies that emerge, reveal that free trade is practiced in only one direction. The only ones who have released their trade are developing countries, through adjustments of the IMF and free trade, while the United States, the European Union and OECD all spend hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to their agriculture , hundreds of branches with excess industrial and protect intellectual property. So many people wonder why the radical left attack a global free trade, which actually does not exist.


The non-polar disorder and instability


Just as the collapse of the Berlin Wall changed the world power bipolar unipolar, severe financial crisis and global recession will end the American unipolar power and will open a apolar new geopolitical era, where neither the U.S. nor any other major power, have the strategic ability to control a growing international anarchy and establish a new world order. (4)

this unipolar system being replaced by a non-polar and not by a multipolar, as some believe, because there multipolarity is necessary that the most powerful, the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France split the world power, or Otherwise, fight, including him. None of this is happening. Today the United States can not dominate the world and its allies, the European Union and Japan, are far from able to do so, in contrast, need to be protected by the United States if they have problems with Russia and China, which , after replacing the autocratic capitalism communism do not compete against the U.S. for world domination. China only want the United States not to interfere in the problems of Tibet and Taiwan. Russia wants the same thing, against the ex-Soviet republics that it considers its sphere of influence.

Thus the world, not unipolar or multipolar system, up to the apolarity. United States is no longer the sheriff of the global village and no one can replace him. We are witnessing the birth of a new geopolitical era, where all the great powers are conspicuous by their impotence in front of a chaotic and fragmented world of poverty, terrorism, civil wars, genocide, ethnic cleansing, trafficking in drugs, weapons and people.
apolar
This new era, now the financial crisis and global recession force propelled, may cause specific geopolitical situations such as those listed below:

-End of unilateral diplomacy of the United States through close coordination with allies and other states.
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U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq within 18 months and focus more forces in Afghanistan and it's border with Pakistan. Intensification of the war with the Taliban and their tribal allies. (Barak Obama)

-Consolidation of the Shiite alliance, between the governments of Iraq and Iran after the U.S. unemployment. Possibilities of civil war with Sunnis and Kurds.

-Continuation of the difficulties for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority because of divisions among Palestinians and in the Government of Israel and especially the loss of power of persuasion of the United States in the Middle East-Mayor

use of mercenaries by the United States in its military operations.

-strengthening Russian influence over its ex-Soviet environment and China on Tibet.

-Continuation of nuclear proliferation in Iran and possibly other states. Difficulties in

advocacy humamos rights and democracy in Russia, China and other countries with autocratic regimes and authoritarian in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

-Return of the United States to Latin America to consolidate and strengthen democratic allies in Latin American armies to combat terrorism, drug trafficking and crime. Increased

-ethnic wars, religious and political and the collapse of poor countries ungovernable chaotic entities (ECIS), mainly in Africa and other underdeveloped regions. Increase in gross violations of human rights and crimes against humanity.

-significant increase in overall crime, drug trafficking, weapons and people.

-Degradation of operations of United Nations peace through indifference or disagreement among the permanent members of the Security Council and also by lack of resources due to global economic crisis.

In conclusion, the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Wall Street have shown that ideological concepts, for and against the market, such as those inspired central planning and wanted to supplant that inspired the so-called invisible hand directs and corrects him are false, dangerous and above all, ethically unacceptable. The first because it only works under totalitarianism and the second because he preaches that the sum of all selfishness creates prosperity. Ultimately, the fall of real socialism and the collapse of deregulated financial capitalism are the result of moral decay that has been stripped of ethical content of economic activities and has opened a non-polar geopolitical era, full of instability and violence.

Geneva, October 30, 2008

NOTES.

1 .- William Pfaff. Herald Tribune. October 3, 2008. 2 .-
BBC News. November 28, 2008.
3.-Report of the Director General. International Labour Organization. ILO Website. November 28, 2008. 4.-
Oswaldo de Rivero. Power without power. Make that 153. March-April 2005
(*) Former Ambassador of Peru to the United Nations

My Oovoo Camera Isn't Working

Economic Growth Can Be Reconciled with sustanaible development? (Inglés Version)

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Can economic growth be reconciled with sustanaible development ?
On a knife-edge between climate change and Millenium Development goals

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ECONOMIC GROWTH CAN BE

RECONCILE WITH SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT? ON A KNIFE-EDGE BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

26/6/2008

I do not think
Economic Growth That Can Be Reconciled with Sustainable Development in the near future and Possibly not for Many Decades. I Wish It Could But it can not. In FACT, we use the term Sustainable Development very easily. In reality, we are using an oxymoron, because sustainable development is not yet possible since all the production of goods and services in the global economy, utilizes fossil fuels, and these polluting energies will not easily be replaced.

Today, more than 75 per cent of energy used globally is made up of oil, coal and gas and our civilization is far from being able to do without these energies which are highly polluting and emit large quantities of greenhouse gases. Renewable energies, which would make sustainable development possible, are certainly not just around the corner.

To date, there is not one single form of renewable energy that could be used to replace the almost 90 million barrels a day of oil needed, to generate the 320 billion kilowatts/hour required, to produce the 58 trillion dollars of goods and services by the global economy.

However, the problem with achieving sustainable development is not only to replace fossil energy in order to stop global warming but is, above all, to change our patterns of consumption, which are polluting our cities, oceans, lakes, rivers and destroying forests and bio diversity.

Today the global model of consumption is what I call the “California Model.” It consists of an unsustainable urban expansion over agricultural land, which consumes more and more water, food and oil, whose principal economic activity is “shopping” and where the private automobile is the king. This is a model that produces enormous amounts of emissions of carbon dioxide and garbage.

Following the California Model, our urban civilization has gone beyond the footprint of the human species on the planet. This footprint should be, as a maximum, the use of 1.8 hectares of the earth’s resources per person but now it is 2.2 hectares. Therefore we are 25 per cent overdrawn on the sustainable use of the planet’s resources.

What would happen if all the 5.5 billion inhabitants of the poor countries were provided with 5.5 billion credit cards, so that they could consume like the people of the rich countries? According to Professor Jared Diamond, the one billion inhabitants of the rich countries consume 32 times more than the 5 billion of the poor countries. Therefore if these 5.5 billion were to consume as much as the populations of the rich countries, it will be as if the world population ballooned to 72 billon people. A number, which the planet simply cannot sustain. We would have to buy one o two more planets.

So, if we want sustainable development we have to change our patterns of consumption and this change must be focused, first of all, in the rich consumer societies that are today transmitting, through publicity and global trade, the California Model to hundreds of millions of people around the world.


The Report of the organization, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, carried out by some 1,300 experts from 95 countries, concludes that over the last 50 years in order to satisfies our consumption patterns the growth of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in particular in the industrial countries, has degraded ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any other period in history. The GDP grows but the planet doesn’t grow.

To change our consumption patterns we cannot continue with the fiction of interpreting an annual rise in GDP, that destroys non-renewable natural resources, as an increase in nations’ wealth. However, the World Bank, the IMF, even the United Nations itself, and the majority of economists and politicians venerate the annual growth of GDP as the indicator of development and happiness. This worship of the destruction of our own habitat is as illogical as venerating the growth of a cancerous cell, which also grows destroying its own organism. Perhaps, the future generations in the next millennium, when they study the way of consumption of our civilization, will classify GDP as the indicator of our barbarism.

For example, the rate of growth of the GDP of China is glorified as a paradigm of development. The majority of the international media only describe the China of the economic miracle, but the reality behind this miracle is that the urban population in China grows at an incredible rate of some 29 million every year, in a context where a third of the land suffers from erosion and is unfit for agriculture, where 75 per cent of the rivers and lakes are contaminated, and where 90 per cent of underground water sources are also polluted. Today 400 Chinese cities suffer from water shortages and almost all of them suffer, in addition, from some of the most polluted air in the world, which, according to the World Bank, causes almost 400 thousand premature deaths every year.

The catastrophic situation of the environment in China has triggered hundreds of thousands of unexpected protests. Concerned by this new social protest, the Communist Party of China adopted a “Green” GDP, which would discount from growth the costs of the destruction of non-renewable resources. This new GDP was never applied because it would imply admitting that the average growth of China over the last twenty years (1985 – 2005) was not 8 per cent but only 5.8 per cent.

Fortunately, there are researchers who seek a different calculation from that of GDP. In 1989, Professors Herman Daly and John Cobb of the University of Maryland, created the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), which discounts from the GDP air pollution, destruction of agricultural land and the deterioration of the ozone layer. This index, applied to the economic growth of the United States, demonstrated that the per capita income of the American people had dropped by ten per cent since 1976.
Another new indicator known as the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) was created in 1995 by the NGO Redefining Progress. This indicator also discounts the external costs caused by the destruction of non-renewable resources, such as air pollution, the depletion of energy due to traffic congestion and also the costs of crime. In the light of this new indicator, the GDP of the United States that, according to the statistics grew by 56 per cent for the period of 1982 – 2002, in reality only grew by 2 per cent.
Recently, President Nicholas Sarkozy ser up a Committee of Experts, with the cooperation of Nobel Prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, to change the way French GDP is calculated. The purpose is to include quality-of-life factors,
The idea of replacing the unsustainable GDP is advancing. More groups of experts are working on this issue and I think that the academic centres, which study development, also need to adopt a critical attitude towards the unsustainable GDP and investigate alternatives.
With regard to Millennium Development, I consider that its principal Goals are not in fact Development Goals, because the reduction by half of the number of those who live on our planet with one dollar a day, as well as the number of those who suffer hunger, does not constitute development, but rather damage control of human misery. Raising the miserable income from 1 dollar to 2 dollars a day is not development, because those who earn 2 dollars are still living in poverty, even those who earn 3, 4, and 5 dollars a day are still poor, particularly now that the prices of food and fuel have increased.

When these Millennium Development Goals were reviewed, I was Ambassador to the United Nations in New York. During this review, I maintained that the principal Millennium Development Goals were not laying the foundations for a process of sustainable development, because they do not include a coherent strategy to correct the dangerous imbalance that exists today between the growing urban population in the developing countries and their decreasing access to water, food and energy.

Since the dawn of humanity, the fundamental balance for a civilization to survive is that the size of the population does not exceed the decisive resources available to sustain life, such as water, foodstuffs and energy. This balance is what I called, in my book the Myth of Development: the “Physical and Social Balance”. All civilizations have been dependent on having sufficient water, food and energy for their population, and when they do not, they collapse. However, the Millennium Development overlooked this and left the invisible hand of the market to look after the physical and social balance. Today we can see the consequence of that, reflected in the global food and energy crisis.

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the growing physical and social imbalance between food, energy, water and the growing urban population of the poor countries is like a socio-political seismic fault line, which can cause a series of tremors followed by the cataclysm of the national disintegration of many poor countries.

However, this physical and social imbalance has been ignored not only in the Millennium of Development but also in the national agendas of the developing countries. The majority of the Governments of these countries, overwhelmed by their external debt, have dedicated their policies more towards complying with the adjustments forced on them by the IMF and the World Bank, than addressing a physical and social imbalance which could convert their countries into non-viable nation states.

Most of national, as well as international technocrats never address the possibility of the non-viability of nation states. The discussion of this issue is taboo, because they still live under the influence of more than half a century of the myth of development, which predicates that all underdeveloped nation states will one day become developed nations, prosperous consumer societies with instant gratification, like a mirror image of the industrialized consumer societies.

In the actual ecological situation of the world, we need to free ourselves from the myth of development, to abandon the search for El Dorado. We need to replace the elusive agenda of the richest of the nations with an urgent agenda for the survival of nations. Today, the priority must be to stabilize the growth of the urban population and increase access to water, food and renewable energy to ensure that urban life in the poor countries is not converted into an ecological hell.

The achievement of this physical and social balance is not related to any ideology. Therefore, it should be possible to agree on a “National Pact for Survival” among all the political actors in any developing country where the urban population is exploding and there are alarming symptoms of water, food and energy insecurity.

These National Pacts for Survival should emerge from a wide-ranging national dialogue and democratic exchange between the government, political parties, business managers, workers, the academic community and civil society. Only an ongoing democratic exercise of this nature can help to overcome the challenges posed by the physical and social imbalance and in this way prevent many developing countries from becoming non-viable nation states.

Thank you very much.

Oswaldo de Rivero

Open Gyms Basketball Nj

economic growth and sustainable development. (June 2008). Narco enclaves goblales

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original English Translation


INSTITUTE OF SENIOR
AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF GENEVA



Conference Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero

CAN ECONOMIC reconciled with the growing

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT? 06/26/1908




I do not think that economic growth may be sustainable today. I hope so, but it is not. Very easy to use the term sustainable development, but what we're using, there is nothing that an oxymoron. Sustainable development does not exist for the simple reason that almost all production of goods and services in the global economy is made with non-renewable fossil fuels and pollutants, which are very far from being replaced.

Over 75% of energy used globally is composed of fossil fuels, oil, coal and gas, our civilization is far from overcome these polluting energy. The most one can do now is more radically reducing their emissions. Renewable energies that would enable sustainable growth of GDP are not just around the corner. Today oil is the king and are not renewable energy heir to any successor to his throne. There

enthusiastically about hydrogen but this element is not a power in itself to put it directly into the gas tank of the car because it is always mixed with oxygen in the water. To remove it take a lot of fossil energy. Another possibility is fusion energy hydrogen plasma, this energy would be like find the Holy Grail and start producing energy from the sun in the Earth itself, but not so easy, it is still very expensive but it takes many years of research and billions of dollars.

solar energy and wind have been developed considerably in recent years in industrialized countries but the problem that both of them is still the cost, the size of their facilities and especially the storage of surplus energy for days without sun or wind . The biofuel are is another possible alternative, but this proved that using food for cars has not been a good idea and also that this energy can replace oil would require doubling available agricultural land which would be ethically and politically unacceptable.

Today there is still no single renewable energy capable of replacing the nearly 90 million barrels of oil needed to generate 320 billion kilowatt-hours annually to produce 54 trillion dollars in goods and services in the global economy .

Fossil fuels will only be replaced only in part, by a combination of renewable energy is cheaper and can be stored as hydrocarbons, but to get there still requires many years of research, billions of dollars and especially political will Governments with more advanced science because there are market forces alone which will replace the oil alone. Experience has shown that the recent technological revolution achieved with satellite communications, integrated circuits, computers and the Internet were products of state policies during the military competition of the Cold War.

Today a global economy driven by the intensive use of polluting fossil fuels to heat up the planet has made our civilization in one of the most serious dilemmas I have ever experienced. In fact, low per capita consumption of fossil fuels leads to the economic infeasibility of an nation, but a high per capita consumption by all nations leads to the impossibility of our civilization. For the first time, the energy dilemma has put ecology at the center of the target, not only of countries but of all mankind.

Indeed, today to find out where our civilization will need to know more ecology than economy. Economic science was a civilization that dominated the production of smoke that began 200 years ago and today is ecologically dead. Now ecology science is becoming a sustainable civilization, yet far, which tells us that not only need new renewable energy to survive but, above all, we need to change our consumption patterns.

Today, the global consumption pattern is what I call in my book The Myth of Development, "California model." It's an unsustainable urban expansion on agricultural land, which consumes more water, food and energy, whose main economic activity is "shopping" and where the private car is king. A model that produces an enormous amount of emissions of carbon dioxide heats the planet and unsustainable mountain of garbage and toxic waste.

California global replica model has exceeded our urban civilization, the imprint of the human species on the planet. This should be a maximum of 1.8 hectares of use of nonrenewable resources per person on Earth is now, of 2.2 hectares. And 25% are overdrawn on the sustainable use of the planet.

What if we gave them 5 billion credit cards to all inhabitants of poor countries to consume as the 1000 million people in rich countries. According to Professor Jarred Diamond inhabitants of rich countries use 32 times more than those of poor countries so if they consume as the inhabitants of rich countries, it would be ecologically world population of 72 billion, something the planet can not hold, we would have to buy another.

If we want sustainable development, not only have to change the pattern of energy but also have to change our consumption patterns. This change should be done mostly in affluent societies the consumption of industrialized countries are those that are now transmitting the California model unsustainable, through advertising and global trade, hundreds of millions of people around the world.

However, changing consumption patterns of the California model is extremely difficult, because the poor aspire to live like the rich who already live like Californians. Change the aspirations of the poor and lifestyle of the rich is not easy because it involves, rather than a socio-political revolution, an ethical revolution that will allow us to exercise self-control over our ego's desire to possess and consume the material objects that have other and new creating relentless advertising and marketing.

may begin to change our consumption patterns as a result of significant increase in the coming decades, energy prices, water, food and forced to the great ecological disasters, droughts, famines, hurricanes, mega -forest fires, loss of glaciers and rising sea levels as a result of global warming the planet. In any case, history teaches us that homo sapiens only change ethically as a result of great suffering and tragedy.

According to the study of the organization "Evaluation of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, conducted by 1,300 experts from 95 countries, reveals that 60% of the ecosystems that support life on Earth are being degraded because they are used in a non- sustainable. This study concludes that in the last 50 years the GDP growth to keep consumption patterns, particularly in developed consumer societies has deteriorated ecosystems more rapidly and deeper than at any other time in history. The GNP is growing but the planet is not growing.

can not continue with fiction to interpret an annual growth of GNP, which prey on non-renewable natural resources and using the environment as a raw material increased the wealth of nations. However, the World Bank, IMF and United Nations itself and most economists and politicians revere this growth as the indicator of the progress and happiness. This veneration of the destruction of the habitat itself is as illogical as thinking venerate the growth of cancer cells, which grow also destroying their own bodies Perhaps future generations in the next millennium, when considering the way we produce and consume of our civilization, classified GNP as the measure of our barbarity.

Despite this reality, for example, now comes to China for its high growth of GNP, as an example of development for all countries. Today, most international news only describe the Chinese economic miracle but say almost nothing of the unprecedented ecological disaster that submerged China.

The reality behind the miracle is that China's urban population is growing at an incredible rate of around 30 million a year within a habitat, where a third of the land suffers from erosion and is disabled for agriculture, where 75% of rivers and lakes contaminated, with 90% of underground sources of water is contaminated. Today there are 400 Chinese cities are short of water and almost all of them also suffer from one of the worst air pollution and water in the world that causes almost 400 000 premature deaths annually, according to the World Bank. The mega-

environmental devastation produced by the Chinese miracle is over the fulminate to be hundreds of thousands of unexpected social protest. Concerned about the increasing protests, the Chinese Communist Party drew up a "Green GDP" which after deduction of growth, the cost of nonrenewable resources. This green growth rate came not apply because if had been made, would have had to admit that the average growth of GDP of China, during the last 20 years (1985-2005) had not been about 10%, because he would have had to discount, according to World Bank , 5.8% for ecological costs. It would then only an annual average of 4.2%. Fortunately today there

researchers seeking other than the GDP calculation. Within this new approach to the wealth of nations teachers Daly and Cobb, created in 1980, the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare GNP discounting air pollution, destruction of agricultural land and deterioration of the ozone layer. This index applied to economic growth United States showed that the per-capita income of Americans had fallen 10% since 1976. Other U.S. non-governmental group created a new indicator called Genuine Wealth Indicator (IRG). This measure also discounted, the external costs caused by the destruction of nonrenewable resources such as air pollution, energy waste by automobile traffic congestion and the costs of crime. Under this new indicator, the GNP of the States, according to statistics, grew by 56% between 1982-2002, would have grown only 2% in reality.

The idea of \u200b\u200breplacing the unsustainable rate of GDP this progress. More groups of experts are working on it, but it is necessary that the academic centers involved in development also have a critical attitude on the unsustainable growth of GNP. Recently, President Nicolas Sarkozy has set up an Expert Committee with the cooperation of the Nobel Prize-winning economists Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, to change the way it calculates the GDP of France. The purpose is to include factors on the quality of life.

As for Millennium Development Goals, I think that their goal principial is not really a development goal for halving the number of people living on Earth in extreme poverty, with dollar a day is not doing development, but to control the damage caused by global poverty. Making poor spend more than $ 2 per day earning is not development because they are still very poor who get 2, dollars, including those earning today 3, 4 and even $ 5 a day, now that food has risen and energy.

When we reviewed these goals of the millennium I was as Ambassador to the United Nations, the review coincided with the publication of my book The Myth of Development in New York that the UN was seen as an iconoclastic work by some and other realistic . I argued during the review of the goals of the Millennium goals were not addressed or even to create the foundations for a sustainable development process because it contained a coherent strategy to destroy the imbalance that exists today among the growing urban populations in poor countries and the availability of water, food and energy.

technocrats who designed the so-called Millennium Development Goals did not realize that since the dawn of humanity, the fundamental balance for a civilization to survive is that the population does not exceed the availability of resources critical to life as water , food and energy. This balance is what we call, in Myth of Development: Balancing Social and Physical. " All civilizations have depended on having enough food, water and energy for people, when they did it collapsed. However, the technocracy forgot this and let the invisible hand of market deal of physical and social imbalance. Today we see the consequences with the global food and energy crisis

Today the greatest threat to international stability was the physical and social imbalance that is forming in the world between the expansion of the global urban population in poor countries and the availability water, food and energy. In 2020, the population of poor countries reached about 6 600 million and is almost entirely urban. Unless there is a fall brutal and unprecedented birth rate and especially rural migration and an increase also unprecedented availability of food, water and energy, much of the world's population will live in urban physical and social imbalance in chaotic and mega cities with millions of poor and unemployed, malnourished, surrounded by pollution, socio-political turmoil and violence.

At the beginning of XXI century, the physical and social growing imbalance between food, energy, water and urban population is a socio-political fault line may cause a series of tremors and after the cataclysm of national disintegration. However, physical and social imbalance was ignored in the national agendas of underdeveloped states. In most of the governments of these countries has been a total disregard for the urban population growth and future water availability, food and energy. During the past 20 years burdened by debt were devoted more to obey the settings that are dictated by the IMF and World Bank to meet the growing physical and social imbalance that could now return viable nation states.

The technocrats also national and international non-viability never discuss national issues and problems of survival of the so-called developing countries. These issues are a kind of national and international taboo because they still live under the influence of more than half a century the myth of development, according to which all states underdeveloped nations will be a day nation states developed, prosperous societies of consumption and instant gratification to the image and likeness of industrialized societies and societies of mass consumption.

The truth is that, after more than fifty years of theory and policy development, real per capita income in more than seventy countries developing misnamed, is lower than they were twenty years ago. In a population of 5.5 billion in the developing world, there more than 4.000 million survive on only two or three dollars a day and more than 1.000 million less than a dollar a day. This reality invites rid of the myth of development, to abandon the quest for El Dorado and replace the elusive agenda of the wealth of nations in the urgent task of the survival of nations even more now that climate change and water shortages , food and energy are a reality. Priority today is to stabilize the urban population growth and increase the availability of water, energy and food to make urban life in poor countries will not become an inferno.

Achieving this balance physical and social is unrelated to any ideology and therefore likely to be concluded as the National Pact for Survival by all political actors in any poor country where the urban population is growing considerably and alarming symptoms of insecurity perceived water, energy and food.

The only condition for achieving Covenants Survival in poor countries is that there genuinely democratic regimes. Survival of Covenants must emerge from a large national dialogue and a great democratic consensus between governments, political parties, entrepreneurs, workers, academics and civil society in general and should work permanently so. Only with a constant exercise of this nature may help overcome the challenges the physical and social imbalances and climate change pose to the viability of many nation states subdesarrollaos. Thank

.



Copyright © Oswaldo de Rivero 2008

Is It Ok To Go Tanning After Eyebrows Waxed

- Narco global enclaves ...

TPSIPOL FORUM: NETWORK DEMOCRATIC

February 2008 Good Government in February 2008

global enclaves

narcos Oswaldo de Rivero

drug
Today moving global financial resources of around 400 billion dollars annually. Of these, more than 5 billion goes directly to farmers in developing countries and 100 billion to end drug trafficking. When farmers and drug traffickers operating in the territory of a country is integrated into this financial flow, the territory where the act becomes a narco enclave with enormous financial resources that allow you to defend militarily and also radiate corruption and political influence in the field national.

These powerful enclaves exist in regions of the world that are profitable due to climatic conditions for growing coca and poppy and get cocaine and heroin the two most sought after hard drugs in the world. In Asia there are two major global producers of heroin enclaves, the "Golden Crescent" and the Golden Triangle. The first crop includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey and the second of Burma, Laos and Thailand. In Latin America the enclave are predominant exporter of cocaine in Colombia, but there are clear indications that is forming a new global enclave in Peru, in the valleys of Apurimac and Ene rivers (VRAI)

enclaves when they achieve global narcos export a critical mass of heroin or cocaine maintaining and begin to be governed and defended by drug traffickers who become in real warlords defenders with modern weapons and ferocity plantations, processing facilities and marketing channels, like home. These territories are de facto autonomous state authorities where they exist, they are bought or deterred.

Defending the global narco enclave creates a sort of perpetual conflict, a sort of war of the end of the world, with long periods of violence, armed truce and the resumption of violence as it does in Colombia and in Asia. Also these sites have a large global drug reproductive fitness. When a territory is under pressure from new emerging eradication either in the same country or in neighboring countries, as happened with Plan Colombia, which has brought forth new crops in that country and also favored the expansion of crops in the VRAI.

Today, Peru is the second largest producer of cocaine, produces 29% of world production and the global economic fact already defends narco-mercenaries and assassins in the Central Huallaga and especially now in the VRAI, which emerged as the leading producer of coca in Peru, where he also is involved Mexican drug mafia.

Since 2004 there have been nearly 100 incidents, attacks and attacks with powerful modern weapons against drug policies. The bombers are not terrorists or guerrillas who want power in Peru, but remnants of Sendero and new recruits ex-police officers, graduates and young people have joined the drug trade to participate in the global gains it provides. Although a mattress marxistoide thunders are an armed gang of drug traffickers who fiercely defends his golden underground capitalist enclave.

The buoyant exports of cocaine to the United States and Europe, via the Mexican ports of Peru without need of TLC and all these attacks and military reprisals against the seizure and eradication of cocaine and plantations in Peru suggests that already is achieving the critical mass of production and export of cocaine necessary to emerge a few global enclave in VRAI perennial.

If this happens, Peruvian society will be even more corrupt than it is. Drug interests infiltrate the economy, politics, justice, sport, as has happened in all countries with narcos globalized enclaves. Moreover, the new Peruvian narco enclave "will work" to hundreds of unemployed youth who will change the cloth to wash cars with a Kalashnikov and earn in dollars. Be members of the "army of liberation" but with better ideological camouflage the FARC, because Peru has more historical pirouettes Colombia. Thus, the new cadets will be drug rights advocates ancestral Peruvian coca cultivation (narco enclave) against a "corrupt state and sold to the empire."
The establishment of a global drug enclave in Peru in the VRAI not easily be eradicated by military force. In Colombia there has been not with the help of the United States. We must avoid falling into a similar perpetual conflict. There must be fought militarily but only prevent the production of cocaine out as easily across borders and ports of Peru and at the same time, prevent money laundering in the country and abroad. In short, we must take the spot in training their local and global financial connection to let poor.

If this is not done and the enclave is perpetuated in Peru, the division of territory and the monopoly of the use of force by the state will lose. The country then gradually become an "ungovernable chaotic entity" like Colombia, where the government has to negotiate with drug traffickers, as if they were another sovereign territorial entity.

Shower Door Deflector Replacement

our common position in the Hague against Chile.

- our common position in the Hague ...

TPSIPOL FORUM: NETWORK DEMOCRATIC
January 2008 interview


our common position in the Hague

FROM CHILE Http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/message/24414

The citizenry must be kept informed


05/01/2008
(RED) Ref

What development?
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/message/20276

Primera Plana

04/01/2008

Our argument in The Hague 200 miles
prevent Chile achieved

the Court declared incompetent and have to keep the public informed
says
Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero. ----------------------------------------------

------------
Veteran diplomat
dedicated to high consultancy work in Geneva, Switzerland, Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero loses contact with Peru and is alert to
key issues of our foreign policy, as the crucial maritime boundary dispute with Chile, the speaker in this interview.

Does Allan Wagner is the ideal person for this topic?

, Ambassador Wagner is an experienced diplomat. I see that the Diplomatic Agent has been appointed to the Court in The Hague. However, this function does not exist
in the Statute or the procedures of this court. There are only agents, dry, without the addition of "diplomat."

Agent, period, I is the litigant, a highly specialized lawyer in the matter of trial and, especially, in the proceedings of the Court. So
not know if Wagner is going to have that role as Agent (trial) or the Diplomat Agent work is another. I think that before filing the lawsuit is necessary to clarify this issue. Marisol ambassadors Aguiero Colunga, José Chávez Soto and Jean Devis Chauny would work with Wagner.

"The appointees are competent. However, countries litigating at The Hague have older equipment. About 3 or 4 foreign jurists specialized in the substance of the trial and also in the procedures of the Court, and as advisers and lawyers about 4 or 5 national lawyers with prestige and experience as litigators and academics on law of the sea and especially maritime delimitation. Ambassador Manuel Rodriguez has just introduced the only book that focuses on what should be the position of Peru. I know he is
good relations with the government, but it is a State issue and a trial that will last longer than the period of this Government. Should convene.

What should be exposed as a fundamental?

"The fundamental issue is that Peru can not lack of 200 miles and Chile have them, when both countries since 1947, defended and propagated along the 200-mile view and succeeded was accepted in the current maritime law. Both countries must be 200 miles and that is possible.

What should be the strategy of our country?

"First we must prepare very well to prevent Chile achieved the Court has no jurisdiction or inadmissible Peruvian demand. Second, entering into the substance always invoke equity to achieve a maritime delimitation Peru that gives the 200 miles that are between Arequipa and Tacna. Third, to stop the domination of Chile on what that country calls, without any legal basis, its Sea Face, an offshore area which prevents the exercise Peru 200 miles. Fourth, that the maritime boundary begins on the shore
the sea.

Roberto MacLean said the suit is well prepared.

"I have not seen the lawsuit. But I think he has very good reason. I repeat: this is a sensitive, specialized, it is not easy. It must listen to many legal and political opinions. Should be informed citizens. It is a state matter, not government. `


Embj. Manuel Rodriguez in the OAS



GOOD TRANSLATION "legal mechanisms in trials at the Hague International Court of approaches are mainly written, called, or anti-Memoirs Memoirs and other writings. There are also oral arguments where the agent must know how to respond to questions asked by the judges and experts. The language at issue in the Court are French and English, to make some management out of those languages \u200b\u200bshould make an exception to the Court. We must take this really seriously, because a bad defense or a bad translation can be very expensive ..

How long will this process take between Peru and Chile?

-The Hague trials are long. Only the issue of whether the Court is competent or can not take 3 years and the trial itself
about 5 years or more.

Marilyn Sakova Y Milena Velba

Is Iraq another Vietnam?

- Is Iraq another Vietnam ...


TPSIPOL FORUM: NETWORK DEMOCRATIC
March 2004

Is Iraq another Vietnam?

Oswaldo de Rivero (*)

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/message/17892

A wave of pessimism scab the press and political circles Americans face urban military insurgency in Iraq and the growth of U.S. casualties. Concerned, above all, the union of the Shiites and Sunnis fighters and also the total lack of conditions for transferring power to the interim Iraqi government next July first, as President Bush continues to promise.

In all the comments raise the specter of Vietnam, to the point that President of the United States has had to publicly declare that what is happening in Iraq is not what happened in Vietnam. Without doubt, the Vietnam analogy is wrong in military terms. Shiites and Sunnis fighters are not an army under a single command, militarily capable and well armed, as was the Vietcong. Nor are stocked like this with modern weapons by Soviet and Chinese allies. Also, unlike Vietnam, the fighting has not carried out in difficult tropical forests, but, rather, are urban battles that involve significant civilian casualties. Much less, low U.S. in Iraq are comparable to those suffered in Vietnam. In Iraq there are on average two to three American casualties per day, while those from Vietnam came to 70 per day, which quickly accumulated amount in thousands of lost lives and brought about the massive protest in the United States.

While military analogy with Vietnam is wrong, the analogy is not political. In fact, in Iraq as in Vietnam, U.S. occupation forces have failed to win politically, the minds and hearts of the population. In this case most of the Iraqi population as the Vietnamese reject the U.S. intervention, and even more in Iraq, most of the population identifies with the provisional government, which they consider "puppet" for having been almost appointed by the occupying power.

A year after the easy invasion of Iraq, rejecting political and armed resistance to American occupation, as in the case of Vietnam, is becoming more fierce than ever. The U.S. presence, as happened in Vietnam is failing to build a modern secular democracy. Conversely, if they had elections in Iraq today is very likely to win the Shiite faction, supported by other Islamists and the result could be an Islamic republic, but not like that of Iran, enough Koranic and far from the American vision of democracy.

The most important political analogy of Iraq to Vietnam is the desperation of the Bush administration to seek an honorable exit from Iraq, as the government sought to Johnson and Nixon in Vietnam. In pursuit of this output, the current U.S. administration, as mentioned, not finding, it will affect his popularity to the American people. A recent survey by CNN and the Times Magazine reveals that for the first time, 49% of Americans support the administration of President Bush and 51% did not approve his Iraq policy

not only the political situation in Iraq is analogous to Vietnam, but, even, one might say that it is more difficult because, at least, in Saigon, the United States had large anti-communist allies, as the armed forces and the petty bourgeoisie in South Vietnam, which States do not have today in Baghdad. In contrast, today both Sunnis and Shiites fighting the U.S. presence. Also, how U.S. occupation forces have divided their occupation in a Kurdish area, another Sunni and one Shiite further exacerbated the religious divide in the country and becoming less governable.

All this can have a powerful ally iraquizar Iraqi conflict as vietnamizó the Vietnam War. Recent units of the new Iraqi army, trained by the U.S., have refused to fight in Fallujah and Ramadi against his fellow Shiites or Sunnis. Also, many of the policemen and soldiers have deserted and some of them have begun to fight the Marines and the Army. Even members of the interim government, appointed by the U.S., have protested against the excessive repression of U.S. forces in Fallujah and have been on the brink of resignation.

In conclusion, it is becoming more difficult to transfer political power to Iraqi authorities in Baghdad that are both truly allies of the United States and have further legitimacy to the people Iraq.

Iraq today resembles more a chaotic situation and or Lebanese Palestinian intifada, where several rebel factions fought and are fighting today against the Israeli occupation, but none of these is truly representative rebel factions to negotiate an honorable exit. If American forces leave Iraq today, this country would implode into a black hole where all the factions that make today the resistance fight between them, as happened in Afghanistan when the Soviets withdrew. Iraq would then become ungovernable chaotic entity which would take shelter numerous terrorist groups.

If the U.S. occupying forces are lucky, because its opponents in Iraq, after all, are not the Vietcong, it may be that urban armed insurrection to wane as it did with looting at the beginning of the occupation of Iraq. But this does not guarantee that no new test, especially if the U.S. is excessive repression and abruptly insists on transferring sovereignty in Iraq to an interim government today has no legitimacy among the Iraqi people.

Perhaps the only way would be to seek an international departure, calling for United Nations mediation and other countries, including Muslim countries in Iraq to establish an interim government acceptable to all parties, to organize elections no later than next year and thus achieve an honorable solution to this conflict which is becoming politically, as in Vietnam, the mother of all strategic nightmares. Oswaldo de Rivero


New York, March 2004

Gm Lease Pull Ahead 2010 December

The mother of all strategic nightmares.

- The mother of all strategic nightmares ...


TPSIPOL FORUM: NETWORK DEMOCRATIC


May 2007 Good Governance
http://buengobiernoperu.com/

IRAQ: The mother of all nightmares Strategic

By: Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero ( Geneva)

May 2007

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/message/23398

About four years after President Bush, who celebrated victory in Iraq with his famous phrase "mission accomplished" U.S. casualties rise. At the time passed from 3.300 24 000 dead and wounded. Also, is estimated at 60.000 morethan Iraqi civilians dead lasfuerzas victims of occupation and the insurgency or delterrorismo. The cost of the occupation reached the fabulous rate of a billion dollars a week. Thus, Iraq, costs, today, at about 204 billion U.S. taxpayer dollars. Not then a surprise that most Americans want their country to withdraw from Iraq and Congress have introduced legislation for an exit in August 2008Ahora in almost all the analysis on Iraq raise the specter of Vietnam. Undoubtedly, the analogy with Vietnam if it is only in military terms is wrong because Islamic insurgents and losterroristas Sunnis and Shia militias are not an army under a single command as it was the Vietcong, but on the contrary, they are enemies in full civil war.

Also, unlike Vietnam, the fighting has not carried out in the rain forests but in difficult urban areas where the armed struggle and terrorism cause considerablesbajas civilians. Even less U.S. casualties Iraq are comparable with those of Vietnam. In Iraq, there is an average of two to four American casualties each day add up, while those from Vietnam arrived at 70diarias, rapidly accumulated amount in thousands of lost lives and brought about the massive protest in the United States. While the military analogy with Vietnam may be exaggerated, however it is not the political analogy.

Indeed, in Iraq as in Vietnam, most lapoblación rejects U.S. intervention. Even the political situation in Iraq is more complicated because the United States in Vietnam had large anti-communist allies and the government of Saigon, its military and the Vietnamese bourgeoisie, which are not in Baghdad because the new Iraqi government elected in January 2005, consists of a majority coalition of two Islamic HIIT partidosS ( laRevolución the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq and the Dawa) that are nothing less than allies of Iran and whose political aim is no other, to achieve an Islamic Republic in Iraq. Thus, the U.S. administration to hold elections in Iraq, has made the most incredible political fiascos. Installed in power to a Shiite Muslim majority coalition supported no less by his arch-enemy Iran's Islamic government. When did this election, the influential magazine The New York Review of Book published an article whose title was the epitome of this incredible fiasco. The article sarcastically called "Bush's Islamic Republic."

Today, the project of a Shiite Islamic Republic is supported by Iran and its large protected Moqtada al Sadr with his formidable army the Mhadi Shiite Army with over 60 thousand soldiers. This army will soon become a formidable rival of the U.S. military as it will be difficult for the new Iraqi armed forces, created by the United States, they face the Mhadi Army because they are formed mainly by elements also Shiites and Kurds who are more interested in preserving the current autonomy of Kurdistan to fight Shiites and Sunnis. The additional 21 000 troops sent by President Bush can not stop subversion and urban terrorism and it is likely that Iraq estaviolencia infernal unacruenta becomes protracted civil war that Iraq could build a territory other Shiite and Sunni independent Kurdistancasi. A prolonged civil war in Iraq debesorprendernos. The truth is that Iraq is a country invented by the British in 1921. Nation has never been viable UNESTO but always a territorial entity fraught with ethnic strife between Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians and Turkumanas, and 500 tribes, divided by two major Muslim religious tendencies, the Shiite and Sunni war today.

The apparent national cohesion and t rends all these Muslim ethnic groups was the result of Iraqi governments autocrats who enjoyed a good income with cruelty oil to suppress any attempt at autonomy. Since 1958, the Baathist party and the vicious petro-tyranny of Saddam Housein spending a billion dollars a year suppressing and fighting Kurdish insurgents, shite or both at once.

today's Iraq is no longer a viable state unified by repression but rather an ungovernable chaotic entity (ECI) and will remain so as long as foreign occupation, and while none of the major ethnic and religious groups may prevail in a civil war. Today the United States have no control over Iraq, not on Afghanistan, now become the largest exporter of heroin in the world. It also extended its armed forces suffer from a lack of recruitment. Neither the American superpower has been able to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons enPakistán, India, Iran and North Korea.

Finally, the economy of the United States today accused the most large fiscal and trade deficits in its history, the dollar has weakened and consumer society depends on the purchase of Treasury bonds by Japan, China and other Asia countries yEuropa. This whole situation has undoubtedly Adud on whether the world is as unipolar, as they say. However, despite the severe limits has demonstrated the unilateral action in Iraq and Afghanistan, this should not lead us to think we're in a multipolar world, because no other powers like the United Kingdom, France, Russia China can have unilateral or against global disorder and can not have a balance of military power against the United States.

The truth is that today all the powers are almost powerless against a chaotic, fragmented by civil war, countries collapsed, terrorism, genocide, nuclear proliferation and drug trafficking, weapons and people. Consequently, what exists today is, rather, a great world power deficit to meet the great global challenges of the XXI century. This vacuum of power we would be leading towards a new geopolitical era, where instead of unipolarity or multipolarity, would emergiendouna sort of "apolarity", ie a structure of world power without Sheriff and no multipolar balance of power, which stands the deficit of power of great powers to pacify an increasingly chaotic world and create a new world order.

The Vietnam War, the Soviet invasion deAfganistán, the actual conversion of that country into a narco-state and the Iraq fiasco, show that it is very easy to invade viable nation-states, militarily inferior, but very difficult to deal , to make them viable, democratic and retire honorably when the country has collapsed into a domestic hell. Therefore, the neocon utopia "win the war on terror" building a viable Iraqi democracy that radiates throughout the Middle East has today become the mother of all strategic nightmares.

Orange Brested Starling

The Peru wrapped in the myth of development.

- The Peru wrapped in the myth of development ...


TPISPOL FORUM: NETWORK DEMOCRATIC
July 2007

EL PERU'S INVOLVED IN THE DEVELOPMENT MYTH

Oswaldo de Rivero

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ eleccion/message/23671

Ref http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/message/19361

Many believe today that Peru's GDP growth is a sign that the economy has entered a virtuous cycle that leads to development. Growing up is not development, growth based on mineral commodities is less so. Peru has always exported mining products and has never managed to become a developed country. "For now many believe this cyclical boom in mineral prices will lead to development? This cyclical bonanza ores always arises as external factors and external factors also cease. Today depends specifically on the strong international demand, particularly from China, and also of great speculation in world markets.

The history of our underdevelopment is a series of booms and terrible crisis of exports produced by external factors. As were the booms and crises of guano, saltpeter and rubber in the nineteenth century and the boom and bust of the minerals in the twentieth century. In no case shall the temporary booms in commodity prices have reduced poverty in Peru. In contrast, the export of raw materials combined with high population growth, including urban, through more than 180 years of independence, has made poverty in Peru to become hereditary and now affects nearly half of the Peruvian population. Recent reports by the Peruvian Institute of Statistics (INEI) show that the boom in mineral prices and exports has not helped to reduce income inequality and poverty. Since 1991 wages in Peru that were 30% of GDP have fallen to arrive in 2005 to 22.9. So it is not surprising that low wages combined with high rates of unemployment and underemployment rise to a constant social turmoil in Peru and growing emigration.

Indeed, nothing demonstrates more the failure of national development in Peru that the Peruvian tsunami of economic refugees in foreign. No international analyst, academic or private banker seriously consider that Peru is in the process of development, just because its GDP is growing due to primary exports, particularly exports des minerals, which are 60% of them. These specialists come to Peru as a primary economy, traditional, very competitive, embedded in a very poor society, where half the population lives on $ 2 and constant upheaval. Private international analysts, unlike international bureaucracies World Bank and United Nations, considered that the poor are more than half of the population in Peru because they are also poor people, earning 3, 4 and perhaps up to $ 6 a day is not poor, in a global economy, a person with $ 6 a day, 180 per month. What happens is that the international bureaucracy has put extreme poverty bar very low at $ 1 a day and poverty, on $ 2 a day. Therefore, any improvement in this pitiful situation for these technocrats is to overcome poverty, that is when the inhabitants of a country are $ 3 a day (90 dollars a month) are no longer poor!.

Poverty is the consequence of underdevelopment is not the case. Today, the biggest obstacle to development with countries like Peru and Latin America is cultural. Indeed, since independence all these countries have shown a lack of historical vocation of the mathematical, physical, chemical and biological weapons and also for research and development of technologies derived from these sciences, to constantly innovate its domestic production.

As a result of this historical lack of vocation for the natural sciences, American societies America today are real "unscientific cultures, societies where nearly all knowledge and discourse is historical, legal, sociological, economic or literary point where it is preferred that the logarithm, the rhetoric that the experiment, the belief rather than doubt scientific. The result is that almost no programs for Research and Scientific Development (R & D) are those who do, in this era of innovation, the difference between wealth and poverty, between development and underdevelopment, between Asia and Latin America.

countries unscientific trapped in cultures as Latin Americans, are only capable of producing and exporting natural resources and manufactured goods with low technological content, which always have less value than products with high technological content that matters. Consequently, these countries can not accumulate resources to meet their growing demands modernization of urban expansion. In this situation no alternative but to permanently borrow to buy the scientific and technological progress not know how to produce. Thus, the root cause of underdevelopment is not economic but cultural.

Economists have largely ignored the explanations "cultural" development. To economic formulas they just explain the wealth of nations. This simply is not. Empirical experience shows, for example, that a country can practice more radical free-market formulas but still trapped in an unscientific culture will remain a backward society, indebted and poor because they always exported natural resources and products with low technological content have less value than scientific progress that constantly has to import.

Today, only 10% of the world's scientists are in developing countries, 90% of this percentage, is Asia, divided between Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, China and India. These are the only Asian countries that, apart from the United States, Japan and the European Union, reported each year hundreds of patents in the World Industrial Property. Latin America has only 0.7% of scientists from developing countries and not inventing anything. The Asia region is compared with the scientific-technological wasteland. Except for Brazil, no other Latin American country, R & D spending in an amount not even close to 1% of GNP.

In Peru, the investment in scientific and technological research is almost nil. The state spends only 0.03 of GDP, one of the most under-investment in R & D in the region. No society can go in the XXI century, underdevelopment knowledge only restricted to the humanities and social sciences. This knowledge is essential but not sufficient to enter into a true development process. It is for these reasons that humanity enters its third millennium as a dual planetary society divided. On the one hand, a minority of countries that are prosperous effort scientific intellectual, who invent and innovate products and services. The other, a majority of poor countries like Peru and Latin America, which still live physical exertion, exploitation of natural resources and bureaucratic routine work, buying ever more expensive scientific and technological progress can not create.

So to know if a country is "in development" should not be impressed with the GDP growth, fueled by the boom time of primary exports, but to observe if you are graduating more scientists, engineers and technologists, lawyers, scholars, historians, sociologists and psychologists. And above all, check whether the state, enterprises, universities and colleges invest in R & D to continuously innovate the production, as happens today in South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, India, China and Malaysia, which are today only countries that are developing or already developed.

A true sign that in Peru there is a virtuous cycle to development would be the existence of a state strategy to get rid of the trap unscientific culture today that keeps us in underdevelopment. A strategy whose main thrust would be a revolution in education to achieve the same or more graduate scientists and scholars program research and development investments in science and technology to increase the technological content of our production. This signal is occurring in Peru, nor in Latin America where the culture remains firmly unscientific, where exports are still low technological content, where the GNP increases but increases social inequality, where the rich live in a secure haven, the middle class in a purgatory and people in hell,

Oswaldo de Rivero

July 2007

How Much Does Elizabeth Gillies Weigh

Climate change: the threat to international peace and security. Andean

- The new threat to international peace and security ...

TPSIPOL FORUM: RED 08/01/2007 DEMOCRATIC



Le Monde Diplomatique

July 2007


CLIMATE CHANGE: Oswaldo de Rivero
(*)

http:/ / groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/message/23799

The New Threat to International Peace and Security



According to Paul Crutzen Nobel prize are not living in the Holocenio which is the current climate period after the Ice Age, but a new era climate created by the same man who should be called the "Antropocenio." According to Crutzen, this was started in 1790 when James Watt perfected his invention, the steam machine, not knowing it would change the planet's climate history. Indeed, the industrial revolution in full swing shot driven by fossil fuels, highly polluting, coal and oil. Since that time, the amount of CO2 has been steadily increasing in the atmosphere, creating a greenhouse effect that has overheated the climate of our planet. (1)

The planet has warmed 0.6 degrees Celsius and it has been since 1979 that the hottest years recorded. This is the conclusion of the Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on UN Climate Change (IPCC) that integrates 2.500 specialists from over 100 countries. Today, scientists do not doubt that the warming of Earth's climate is a solid reality and a threat to our civilization (1).

One of the most overheated human activities that climate is the urbanization of the planet replicating unstoppable expansion of cities in California that grow addicted to oil, pouring tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, cement planting on agricultural land and unsustainably consuming more and more water, food and energy. Today, almost every city in the world, especially the new contaminated chaotic megalopolis of Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, expand playing the "California model," thereby adding millions of tons of greenhouse gases already accumulated in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. (2)

If greenhouse gas emissions continues to accumulate in the atmosphere and climate overheating, hurricanes, cyclones, torrential rains, floods and El Niño, which devastated cities and areas are whole farm, will become even more destructive. Also, an increase in droughts and desertification affecting food production. Also, the glaciers of the Andes and the Himalayas could disappear dangerously diminishing water supply and consequently of food for millions of people. The Arctic, Greenland and parts of Antarctica melting also suffer which could raise the sea level to cover many islands and coasts where most of humanity.

Melting glaciers will collapse
governance
The most dangerous threat to international security posed by Climate change is the increasing scarcity of water. Water is becoming a strategic resource such as oil and the resulting disputes can become violent internal and international conflicts. The capture of water sources and pollution of water reservoirs are now considered as strategic objectives for both military and terrorist groups.

In the two most populous countries, China and India, water scarcity continues to increase due to urban sprawl "California Model." In China more than 400 cities already have water shortages. India not far behind with severe shortages of water for agriculture and cities. In both countries emerging internal disputes about the lack of water and the unsustainable urban sprawl on agricultural land. Undoubtedly, this situation will worsen when you go disappearing glaciers of the Himalayas and lack of water in the Yellow and Yangtze rivers large in China and Brahmaputra, Ganges in India

How can these two mega-states to overcome the huge problem of the decrease of water resources from its explosive development. Nobody knows. What is certain is that if you decrease the flow of the great rivers of China and India for the shrinkage of glaciers in the Himalayas, we face a huge ecological disaster that will cause serious problems governance in two behemoths that represents a quarter of humanity have nuclear weapons.

not only glaciers in the Himalayas are disappearing, so are making the glaciers of the Andes at a rapid pace, experts may disappear between 15 and 25 years, leaving large cities and agricultural areas of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru without water and thus putting at risk access to food for most of the population is poor. This scarcity of vital resources for survival create more social unrest, increase existing violent conflicts and create new ones, further affecting the governance of the Andean states. (3)

Also, water scarcity can become the current disputes over the use of large flows of international rivers in conflicts between nations. The flow of Tigre and Euphrates rivers being dammed by Turkey to irrigate the region of Anatolia, are also vital to the survival of Iraq and Syria. If there is a tripartite agreement on its use, it is not strange as it may generate a conflict in the future. (4) For Israel, Syria, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, the distribution and use of the Jordan River, so far not well defined, are without doubt the fundamental condition for the existence of a lasting peace between them. You can also arise a conflict by the use of Nile water between Egypt and Ethiopia, due to damming it plans to make this country last part of the flow of this river that is vital to Egypt since Pharaonic times.

land to agricultural use per-capita in the world has declined. All soils, even the richest and the United States are the granaries of the world today suffer degradation. According to the World Bank in 80 developing countries food production has declined. This situation will worsen further with hydrological disasters of climate change. Food, particularly grains, will thus become more scarce and expensive, further affecting the food-importing countries, particularly countries that already suffers from erosion, drought and desertification as the Sahael, Margreb, the Andes, Central Asia, China and India. (5)

Within this context of hydrological disasters, shortages and rising food prices, they may become effective diplomatic weapon that would use the major exporting countries to assert their national interests. Many poor countries are at the mercy of food aid will be a kind of beggars states will suffer food crisis and infighting that will become ungovernable.

Ecology is linked to violence

Professor Homer-Dixon has done perhaps the most thorough studies on the link between environmental degradation and violence, sees the emergence of Sendero Luminoso in Ayacucho region, not only due to reasons ideological but also to ecological factors, because before the outbreak of the subversion, the density of the Ayacucho population grew significantly to reach 12.1 inhabitants per km2 while agricultural land decreased to 0.2 hectares per person. This made the per capita income fell, and thus access to sufficient food. According to this specialist, also increased population density and limited agriculture were factors of the insurgency in sheets, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa and now in Darfur (Sudan) (6)

The impact of climate change on international security are clearly visible when the Program Environment UN says that in the year 2010, environmental refugees could, no less, to reach 50 million as a result of the increased intensity of hydrological disasters. National Geographic also announces consequences that would change the geopolitical map of the world. According to this magazine if Greenland continues to melt as quickly, the sea level could go up up to three meters in 2100. This increase will eliminate flooding islands and coastlines severely important as Florida, Holland and the great deltas of the Nile, Ganges and Brahmaputra, causing massive population movements into neighboring regions also populated, thereby giving rise to conflicts.

most fragile countries address climate change and more likely to suffer serious social and political turmoil are those who are now the highest in the world urban population growth combined with the lowest per-capita consumption of water and food world. These countries are: Afghanistan, Angola, Algeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, Cameroon, North Korea, Cote d'Ivoire, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jordan, Kenya, Liberia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, PERU, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda , Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe. This group must be added the 46 countries that are islands threatened by rising sea levels.

This large number of countries, representing billions of people, whose viability as urban societies is threatened by climate change confirms that this emerging link between environmental degradation and internal and international turmoil. For these reasons, when I was Ambassador of Peru to the United Nations, initiate coordination with colleagues from countries that are ecologically fragile, especially with the ambassadors of the island states to get them to give the highest consideration to climate change as a new threat to peace and security.

This coordination of interests between Peru and threatened by the loss of glaciers and island states threatened by rising oceans, was instrumental in achieving the number of votes needed to gain entry of Peru to the Security Council. Once in the Council's intention was to request that the supreme organ of the international security debated for the first time open publicly and climate change. My mission at the United Nations term before he could complete the steps to introduce this important issue in the Security Council. However, the income subject thanks to the leadership of Great Britain, thus giving a valuable step in establishing a link between climate change and international security.

Not only the Security Council has begun to recognize the relationship between climate change and international security, but also an important study, no less, that the Pentagon entitled "Climate Change and National Security of the United States" has recognized that acute water shortage and large drought that climate change will affect food production and will cause considerable tension and national and international conflicts. Recently also eleven admirals and generals of the United States issued a report stating that climate change is a threat multiplier to international security. Today, climate change has become a parameter of analysis of international security

Throughout the twentieth century, the growth parameter was hegemonic to predict the fate of nations and the world today but this parameter is not valid For all the economic thought of the last century has is based on the premise that the planet has the capacity to give us perpetual economic growth. This premise is now a fallacy that has no relation to the ecological reality of the Earth. From this century, to learn the fate of the world will become increasingly necessary to replace the economic forecasts for ecological forecasting. In other words, replace the mythology of economic growth data of predation planetary scientists.

Geneva, July 2007.


(1) The New York Times. May 9, 2005
(2) Oswaldo de Rivero. The Myth of Development p. 233. Lima 2006
FEC (3) France Press.7 August 2005
(4) Le Dessous de Cartes. 206 p. Editor Taillandier. Paris 2006
(5) Ibid p. 220
(6) Thomas F. Homer Dixon. Enviroment, Scarcity and Violence. Princeton University Press 1999
(7) Oswaldo de Rivero. Op cit. P. 286

* Ambassador, former representation before the UN Security Council.

Vintage Cazal 856 S Replica

comunity of Nations and the UN reform.

- 1. Andean Comunity of Nations (CAN) express STI viewpoints on the United Nations Reform to the General Assembly, Represented by Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero ..


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1 April 2005. Andean Comunity of Nations (CAN) express viewpoints on the STI United Nations Reform to the General Assembly
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- The mith of Development
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2. Reform of the United Nations Security Council and role of Latin America

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1. Andean Comunity of Nations expresses its viewpoints on the United Nations reform to the General Assembly

Lima, April 6, 2005.- Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero, Permanent Representative of Peru to the United Nations, made a presentation this morning in New York, on behalf of the five Andean Community Member Countries, with regard to the report of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan entitled "In larger freedom: towards development, security and human rights for all.”
This is the first time the CAN took the floor at a United Nations General Assembly session to speak out about the reform of the organization and the proposals put forward for that purpose in the cited report.

The Andean Community started off by expressing its willingness to firmly support the strengthening of the United Nations in order to increase its efficiency and effectiveness in promoting the development and safety of all and respect for international law. It also maintained that the new concept of international collective security should address both new and old threats, “above all the fight against poverty and social exclusion.”

It also pointed out that the decisions that are adopted in the evaluation of compliance with the Millennium Declaration targets and the United Nations reform “should lead to balanced results that address the interests of all Member States” and, for that reason, proposed that they should not be adopted as a “package.”

The CAN also expressed its strong backing for multilateralism and its concern over the lack of attention being given to countries which, although “middle income,” show high poverty rates. It requested that urgent attention be given to a series of problems faced by these countries, such as external debt, poverty, recurring economic crises, and instability.

Ambassador De Rivero also stated, on behalf of the CAN, that the review process of the Millennium Declaration and the United Nations reform should contribute toward overcoming the inequitable elements of the international trade system by eliminating subsidies imposed and tariff and para-tariff barriers raised by developed countries “that keep us from building up our national productive capacities.”

To conclude, the Andean countries considered that a long-term development strategy should aim at creating wealth by promoting the existence of a favorable international environment for development.

It should be added here that the United Nations General Assembly, with its adoption of Resolution 52/6 of November 1997, gave the Andean Community observer status, authorizing it to participate in the sessions and efforts of that body.

The presentation made by Ambassador De Rivero, in representation of the Andean Community, is positive proof that joint positions can be coordinated in the framework of the Andean Common Foreign Policy, whose guidelines were approved in 1999 through Decision 458, making it possible to strengthen the profile and influence of the CAN member countries on the dynamic international stage.

2. Statement by the Andean CommunityReport of the Secretary-General “In larger freedom: Towards security, development and human rights for all” General Assembly of the United NationsBy PERUVIAN Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero, Permanent Representative to the United Nations, on behalf of the Andean Community
New York, April 6, 2005

Mister President:
Allow me to address this session on behalf of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Peru, Member States of the Andean Community, a region with 120 million inhabitants.

Created almost 36 years ago, the Andean Community is the oldest and most institutionalized tool for integration in South America. It is the modern expression of an Andean identity built on the basis of common geography, history and interests with a common foreign policy, the core of the integration of the South American Community of Nations.

Mr. President:
The Andean countries, founding members of the United Nations, have reviewed the Report of the Secretary-General entitled: “In larger freedom: towards development, security and human rights for all”. We are currently analyzing with a high interest the proposals contained thereof and we commit to participating actively and collectively in the consultation and negotiation processes aimed at the strengthening of the United Nations and its efficiency in promoting development and security for all as well as the compliance with international law.
In this opportunity, only general observations will be raised. We will present specific suggestions in future consultations and negotiations.

We share the need for a new concept of an international collective security that embraces both old and new threats, particularly those related to the struggle against poverty and social exclusion. We also support the idea that development, security, freedom and protection of human rights are closely related.

A first reflection is derived from the fact that the proposals of this document constitute a “package”, that is, the concept of “single undertaking”. However, the variety of the issues covered by the Report gives them a specific value which demands separated considerations. Therefore, our countries consider that the decisions to be adopted in the process of evaluation of the implementation of the Millennium Declaration and the reform of the United Nations must lead to balanced results that enable the fulfillment of the interests of all Member States.

The Andean countries fully support multilateralism as a means of improving and strengthening the capacity of Member States to meet the needs of their populations individually or collectively, and to comply with international commitments taken voluntarily, strengthening in this way, the agreed international regimes.

Mr. President:
It is with concern that we observe that the Secretary-General pays little attention to countries such as those of the Andean region which, in spite of their struggle to reach a level of average income, still maintain high levels of poverty. If this issue is not addressed properly, their income levels could revert and the Millennium Development Goals would be even more difficult to achieve.

Foreign debt, poverty, recurrent economic crises and social instability are serious issues that require an urgent solution. The path towards development and the reform of the United Nations system must take into account the situation of every State and region.

We are confident that the reform of the United Nations and the review of the Millennium Declaration goals, which include that of the system for the promotion of development will contribute to eliminate the existing inequality in the international trading system through the elimination of subsidies and tariff barriers of developed countries that hamper the strengthening of our national productive capacity. Likewise, actions are necessary to avoid the volatility of capital flows, the high vulnerability and the high levels of foreign indebtedness as well as an international regime for intellectual property that allows the transfer of technology and the participation of developing countries in the world’s decision making.

Breton Woods Institutions and the World Trade Organization should adjust themselves to the United Nations system and to the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals to face the current social deficit of globalization, which impedes the generation of employment and creates instability.

These are all very important issues that must have a specific place in the eighth goal of the Millennium Declaration targeted to “developing a global partnership for development”. A clear commitment should be made to favor a special and differential treatment in trade issues, stronger actions in the fields of science, technology and innovation and an adequate international solution for the problem of foreign debt in our economies as well as a clear acknowledgement to the need of new financial mechanisms at the international level to strengthen efficiency of public policies and democracies.

The Report of the Secretary-General acknowledges that globalization has contributed to social inequality. Inequality caused by globalization undermines political security. In practice, economic and social rights as well as the right to development will be hampered, and with this, the validity of political rights and democracy itself.

For Andean countries, eradication of poverty is a very important issue and a part of their national strategies. This is why they contribute tirelessly in the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals. However, we consider that a strategy for development in the long run must aim at the creation of wealth through the promotion of an international environment favorable for development. From the Secretary-General’s Report some bias can be observed in assistance issues. We hope that future debates to review the application of the Monterrey Consensus help us strengthen our proposals in the areas of development, including accountability to multinational enterprises.

Mr. President:
Allow me to conclude by conveying the firm belief of the Andean countries in the protection of the fundamental rights of men and women, the human dignity and value, gender equality and the consolidation of democracy. As Member States of the South American Community of Nations, the Rio Group, the Group of 77, the Non-Aligned Movement and the Andean Community, we will seek for the 2005 Summit to achieve the goal of creating conditions for all countries to live in peace, security and prosperity.
Thank you.

Contexto

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Intervención Andean Community on the Report of the Secretary General of the United Nations entitled "In larger freedom: towards development, security and human rights for all"

Statement by Ambassador Oswaldo de Rivero, Permanent Representative of Peru to the United Nations , on behalf of the Andean Community
------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------

New York, April 6 2005

Mr President,
am speaking in this session on behalf of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Peru, countries of the Andean Community to meet 120 million people.

The Andean Community established nearly 36 years, is the oldest integration process and institutionalized in South America. It is the contemporary expression of an Andean identity built on the basis of geography, history and common interests that are expressed in an agreed common foreign policy, which is the core of the Bolivarian integration of the South American Community of Nations.

Mr President,

Andean countries, founding members of the United Nations, have examined the report of the Secretary-General: "In larger freedom: towards development, security and human rights for all. " We are looking with great interest the proposals contained in this document and pledge to participate actively and collectively in the process of consultations and negotiations leading to strengthening the United Nations and enhancing its efficiency and effectiveness in promoting development and security of all and respect for international law.

is appropriate to comment in general, with a commitment to provide specific suggestions in the upcoming consultations and negotiations.
share the need for a new concept of international collective security that addresses threats new and old, especially the fight against poverty and social exclusion, and that development, security and freedom and protection of human rights are closely interrelated.

A first consideration is clear from the suggestion that the proposals received are a "package", which involves the notion of "single undertaking". However, we can not help noticing that the heterogeneity of the issues addressed in the various chapters of the report makes each of them has a specific value that requires separate considerations. Accordingly, our countries believe that the decisions taken in the process of assessing compliance with the Millennium Declaration and UN reform should lead to balanced results that serve the interests of all Member States.

Secondly, the Andean countries strongly support multilateralism because it improves and strengthens the ability of States individually or collectively, so they can meet the needs of their people and meet the international obligations they have freely , agreed to strengthen international regimes.
Mr President,

We are concerned that the Report of the Secretary-General pays little attention to countries such as the Andean countries, have been hard-won income levels average income but poverty levels remain high. If not treated properly this situation, our country could reverse these levels of income which would hardly achieve the millennium development goals.

urgently require attention to the serious problems facing middle-income states, such as external debt, poverty is the number, greater than that of other States, the recurrent economic crises and instability. The path to development and reform of the United Nations system should be considered in due proportion and comprehensively the situation of various states and regions.

We have expectations that the review of the Millennium Declaration and the process of UN reform, among which is the promotion system for development, helps to overcome the existing inequality in the international trading system by eliminating subsidies, tariff barriers and tariffs in developed countries that impede the strengthening of our national productive capacity. Similarly, it is necessary to take decisive action to counter the volatility of capital flows, high external vulnerability and high levels of external indebtedness. Also achieve an international intellectual property regime that does not put the brakes on technology transfer and the participation of developing countries in global economic decision making.

Bretton Woods institutions and World Trade Organization must adapt to the United Nations system and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals to address current social deficit of globalization that impedes employment and creates instability.

All these issues are very important and should occupy a specific place in the eighth Millennium Development Goal aimed to "promote a global partnership for development. " There should be a clear commitment to special and differential treatment in trade, stronger action in science, technology and innovation, an appropriate international solution to the external debt burden on our economies, and a clear recognition of need for new international financial mechanisms to strengthen the efficiency and effectiveness of public policy and democracy in the country.
The Report of the Secretary-General recognizes that globalization has increased social inequality. If unchecked inequality that globalization is causing the current policy no security. Be prevented in practice the effect of economic and social rights of peoples, the right to development and thus, the validity of political rights and democracy itself.

Andean countries to eradicate poverty is extremely important and is part of its national strategy, therefore contributing to the higher of its efforts on achieving the millennium development goals. However, we believe that a strategy of long-term development must aim to create wealth through the promotion of a favorable international environment for development. We see in the Report of the Secretary General some bias welfare and we hope that future discussions to review implementing the Monterrey Consensus help us strengthen the set of proposals in the field of development, including the responsibility that lies with the multinationals.

Finally, Mr. President, I would have the Andean countries strongly believe in upholding the fundamental rights of men and women, their dignity and value, gender equality and the consolidation of democracy. As members of the South American Community of Nations, the Rio Group, the Group of 77, the Non-Aligned Movement and of course as the Andean Community, we will seek the 2005 summit meeting with the task of creating the conditions for all countries can live in peace, security and prosperity.
Thank

--------------------------------------- ----------------------------------

2. The Wilson Center

Reform of the United Nations Security Council and the Role of Latin America

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April 18 2005, 3:00 pm - 5:30 pm Event Summary

Panelists: Madeleine Albright, Former Secretary of State and former U.S. ambassador to the UNEmilio Cardenas, Former Ambassador to the UN from ArgentinaHeraldo Muñoz, Ambassador to the UN from ChileOn April 18, 2005 the Woodrow Wilson Center convened a panel of former and current ambassadors to the United Nations to discuss the recently rekindled topic of UN reform and how Latin America fits in the process. Joseph Tulchin, Director of the Latin American Program, and David Birenbaum, a senior policy scholar at the center, gave the welcoming remarks and introduced the panelists. [Birenbaum is a former US ambassador to the UN under UN Management and Reform, and is currently conducting a study on UN reform.]Madeleine Albright outlined a web of factors which defines the context of UN Security Council reform today. She touched on the United States’ reputation as the member country that is quick to push for reform, yet quite slow in paying its dues. Reformers in 1993 as well as today have been presented with the primary task of making the Security Council more representative of today’s global power structure. However, this proves an extremely difficult undertaking because the process gets flooded with candidates for permanent seats and veto power.

In addition to this, said Albright, intricate alliances form during the negotiations, each conditioning their vote on different, often contradicting propositions. This happens on top of pre-existing alliances from strategic caucuses to major regional organizations such as the European Union. Emilio Cárdenas started with the point that UN reform reaches far beyond the Security Council to other organs such as the General Assembly, and comprehensive reform may call for amending the UN Charter. Cárdenas recognizes UN reform as a process starting about 12 years ago with what he referred to as the “quick fix” of granting Germany and Japan permanent seats. He highlighted the paradox that these two countries, considered the enemy in the Charter, are now the second and third largest contributors to the UN.

However, the “quick fix” was not approved because too many countries conditioned support on their own membership. Shifting the focus to Latin America, Cárdenas observed that some countries, including Mexico, have no desire for a permanent seat on the Council, and that Brazil is the only one that has expressly campaigned for a seat. On motives for Latin American countries to seek a permanent seat, he included greater access to the world’s powerful countries, a “cascade effect” of permanent members winning board membership at UN agencies, and status as the representative of the region. Reflecting on his days as permanent representative to the UN, he said that Argentina did not seek permanent status because its government did not think that reform would ever materialize, and at the time it was right. Even today, Cárdenas believes it is unrealistic to expect reform to be completed by the end of this year, as the UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, has called for.

Finally, Cárdenas warned of the potentially dangerous economic and global security consequences in the recent diplomatic flare-up between China and Japan. Heraldo Muñoz listed several factors which may contribute to a higher probability for Security Council reform today, including gobal power shifts, the oil-for-food scandal, and the war in Iraq. On this last point, he noted that despite going around the Security Council before the war, the US still came back for cooperation with the interim government, construction of infrastructure, and the Iraqi national elections. Also, while the near guarantee of East-West vetoes during the Cold War tended to leave the Security Council in a stagnant state which shifted decisions to the General Assembly, resolutions and other activities have significantly increased since the early 1990s, and today the Security Council enjoys a renewed relevance. Trends like these mean that everyone benefits from a vibrant, effective UN, the main piece of which is the Security Council. Muñoz similarly noted a problem of too many candidates. The reform proposal which calls for one representative for “the Americas”, as opposed to 2 each for Asia and Africa, also poses a significant disadvantage for Latin America. Criteria for membership is far from clear, but may include GNP, GNP per capita, financial and other resource contributions, and general diplomatic initiatives. Muñoz agreed with the point that complete UN reform requires many changes beyond the Security Council, including measures to depoliticize the Human Rights Commission, clarify guidelines for the legitimate use of force, and broaden the role of post-conflict reconstruction.

In closing, Muñoz called for a “New Deal” at the United Nations, consisting of inclusive reform that would benefit even those nations with no prospects of a permanent seat on the Security Council. Birenbaum then opened up the discussion to questions. When asked about new criteria for the use of force, Albright responded that this would be helpful, while noting that the Security Council already has the ability to act preventively in various alternative ways, including by force. A major obstacle to consensus would be a clear definition of terrorism. In addition, Albright also believes that a peace-building commission with a strong enough mandate could potentially have many volunteers. Cárdenas stated that he did not think the United States was ready for Security Council reform, including any delineation of use of force criteria, and that to push the US would effectively kill the window of opportunity. The only answer to this dilemma would be to call for more time. Cárdenas added that the Human Rights Commission is a shame to us in its current state, but that efforts towards democratization should spread beyond the commission to all organs of the United Nations.

Written by Joseph Tulchin with help from Alana Parker

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Brazil Confident Its Suggestion for UN Reform Will Win



Written by Bruno Bocchini
Sunday, 26 June 2005
The Brazilian government is confident that the project proposed by the G4 (a group of countries formed by Brazil, Germany, Japan, and India) for reforming the UN Security Council will be approved.

"We are confident we will have a large majority in favor of this text," said Ambassador José Vallim Guerreiro, of the Ministry of Foreign Relations' Department of International Organs.
The G4 proposal calls for the inclusion of six additional countries as permanent members of the Council: two African countries (still to be determined) and the four members of the G4.
It also suggests expanding the number of temporary Council members from 10 to 14. The Council is currently composed of five permanent members (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China) and ten temporary members, for a total of 15 countries.
The chief task of the UN Security Council is to maintain world peace and security. Among its other powers, the Council can authorize the use of force to settle controversies between countries.

All of the Council's decisions must be approved by at least 9 of its 15 members. A negative vote by just one of its permanent members, however, is sufficient to defeat a motion.
In the G4 proposal, the new permanent members would renounce this veto power for 15 years. At the end of this period, a new round of negotiations would be initiated to reconsider the question.

In order for the G4 proposal to be adopted, the text must first receive ayes from two-thirds of the 192 member countries of the UN General Assembly, that is, 128 votes in favor. This vote, according to Ambassador Guerreiro, should take place in July.

If the Assembly approves the new Security Council model, with its new members, the G4 proposal will be transformed into an amendment to the UN Charter.
But, for the Charter to be altered, the amendment must be approved by the parliaments of two-thirds of the member countries of the General Assembly and the parliaments of all the permanent members of the Security Council.

According to Ambassador Guerreiro, among the five permanent members of the Security Council, the G4 proposal has the support of France, and there are indications that the United Kingdom and Russia might back it.

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UN Security Council Reform: A Challenge for the South Global Dialogue

Volume3.3

December 1998

Developing countries have argued that the structure of the Security Council is anachronistic and unreflective of the current realities of the post-cold war world. Their proposals for its reform, however, have not been met with enthusiasm by the G7.

SHANNON FIELD argues that South Africa, as chair of the Non-Aligned Movement for the next three years, should unite Southern countries on this issue. Only then can the Movement fully utilise its leverage in the United Nations to bring about Security Council reform.

The subject of United Nations (UN) reform has attracted increased attention over the past year, following UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's proposals for the reform of what is seen as a beleaguered organisation. The issue of UN reform featured at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit held in Durban in September and is likely to remain prominent on the NAM agenda over the next three years, with South Africa as NAM chair.

Kofi Annan's reform proposals have focused on the UN Secretariat, calling for administrative changes to improve the functioning of the UN system. This is in line with the agenda of powerful Northern countries that seek to downsize UN operations and eliminate bureaucratic waste. The United States, in particular, has been able to ensure that administrative reform takes place by using the financial whip and withholding its dues to the organisation, which amounts to almost 80 per cent of the total arrears owed to the organisation.

While many of these measures are necessary to enhance the effectiveness of UN operations, larger issues of UN reform such as the democratisation of certain UN structures have not been adequately addressed by recent reform initiatives. It is developing countries that tend to be more concerned with substantive reform like the restructuring of the Security Council. The reform of the Security Council is crucial given its responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It is clearly not a priority for the permanent members of the Security Council - the US, UK, France, Russia, and China - to agitate for the democratisation of this body, which would only see their power reduced.

There is currently a consensus among the developing countries that the structure of the Security Council is anachronistic and unreflective of the current realities of the post-cold war world. Developing countries now make up more than two-thirds of the total UN membership, but are grossly underrepresented on the Security Council. This can be explained by the fact that many did not exist as sovereign independent states at the time the organisation was founded.
Some in the developed world would rebut the arguments of developing countries. They claim that the Security Council was never designed to represent the UN membership geographically, but was intended to be a concert of great powers who had the right to make major decisions by virtue of the fact that they held economic and military power. However, greater representation of developing countries on the Council is now more important than ever, considering the frequent intervention of the UN in conflicts occurring within the South. The more representative the Council, the more legitimate its actions will seem and the easier it will be to build consensus and have its actions carried out.

Perspectives on Security Council reform

While it is generally accepted that the Council should be enlarged to make it more representative, the United States, France, Britain and Russia are opposed to any enlargement that will bring its total number to over 23 members. The United States insists that Germany and Japan should be included among the new permanent members, as they are both the world's second and third largest economies and UN dues payers, thus giving them the right to greater influence. Permanent members have not stated clear objections to the extension of veto power to new permanent members, but oppose any limitation of the veto power.

The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) has argued for an expansion of the Security Council to bring its total number to no less than 26 members. According to the OAU proposal, Africa should have at least two permanent rotational Security Council seats and five non-permanent seats. The representatives for the permanent seats would be nominated by the region and elected by the General Assembly. The OAU has stipulated that limitations be placed on veto use.

NAM pronouncements on Security Council expansion have been noticeably vague. The Movement argues for an increase in membership by no less than 11 states but does not specify to which regions these seats should be allocated. South Africa has officially supported the OAU position to expand the Security Council to 26 members and create a rotational seat system. Its position on the veto power has been that the veto should either be abolished in a new Security Council or extended to incoming members.

Recommendations for a restructured Security Council

As chair of the NAM South Africa will have the opportunity to present a detailed and clearly defined position on the reform of the Security Council to the South and attempt to rally developing countries behind a common proposal. To truly democratise the Council South Africa would need to advocate for the elimination of all permanent seats and the creation of regional seats elected by the General Assembly, although this would not be acceptable to the existing permanent members. It is recommended that South Africa adopt the following position on

Security Council reform:
Expand the Security Council to a total of 26 members, broken down as follows: Existing permanent members
United States
Russia
China
Britain
France Additional permanent members
African seat
African seat
Asian seat
Latin American seat
Industrialised country seatExisting non-permanent members
Asian seat
Asian seat
African seat
African seat
African seat
Latin American seat
Latin American seat
Eastern European seat
Western Europe and others
Western Europe and othersAdditional non-permanent members
African seat
African seat
Asian seat
Asian seat
Latin American seat
Arab seat
The permanent African seats should be rotating, enabling a number of key African states to exercise their influence and share the cost of permanent member status. Asia and Latin America can decide as regions whether or not their permanent seats should be rotational.
One permanent seat should be reserved for industrialised countries enabling states such as Germany, Japan, Canada, Italy and Sweden to contend.
Veto power should be extended to incoming permanent members and its use limited to actions taken under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

Countering objections

The viability of such a position on Security Council reform may be challenged on a number of fronts. One foreseeable objection may be to the recommendation for rotational regional seats. Rotational seats may be seen as discriminatory by some in the South when powerful Northern states are guaranteed consistent influence as existing permanent members. While a rotational seat system for incoming members is discriminatory there is little hope that the existing permanent members would forego some of their power in order to create regional seats across the board. Regional hegemons like Brazil and India have already stated their objections to a rotational seat system. This is problematic given that other powers such as Argentina, Mexico, Pakistan and Indonesia insist on this system. Developing consensus within the South will require compromise between these positions.

It is also questionable whether African countries have the financial resources to assume permanent status, even within a rotational system. While it is true that the majority of African states would have difficulty mobilising the resources for such a position, key African states like Zimbabwe, South Africa, Kenya, Tunisia, and Nigeria claim the ability to assume such responsibility. Within South Africa skeptics have challenged the wisdom of diverting much needed resources from development projects to finance a term for South Africa on the Security Council in the permanent category.

The additional costs of permanent status are not significant in real terms, however, especially given the opportunity for South Africa to become a truly influential international actor. According to the South African department of foreign affairs, South Africa's contribution to the United Nations is currently about R16m a year, and permanent member status would only involve a one to five percent increase in this amount. A rotational system might also impede the ability of permanent members to develop fully the necessary structures and mechanisms within their own governing system to engage with the Security Council before their term expires.

In addition to objections concerning the viability of rotational seat system, there could possibly be opposition to the argument for extending the veto power to new members, even with stringent limitations. The point that has been made in the past is that a proliferation of veto holders would paralyse decision-making in the Council by doubling the number of potential nay-sayers and making it difficult for the Council to act promptly and effectively. This potential problem could be resolved by increasing the number of vetoes necessary to block the adoption of a resolution to a minimum of two. The existing permanent members will oppose the curtailment of veto power but will have a hard time ignoring the demands of the overwhelming majority of the General Assembly, of whom more than 95 per cent support future restrictions on the use of the veto.

Another challenge to the position outlined here is American professor Craig Murphy's argument that the ambivalence and disunity of the Group of 7 assures that no more than piecemeal UN reforms are likely in the near future. Murphy has pointed to France and Britain's disinterest in changing the current system of Council membership as it will diminish their influence, as well as the lack of political will on the part of the Canadian and Italian governments to use their influence to ensure substantive UN reform. As for the United States (US), Murphy contends that the conservative nature of the US congress and the distrust of many Republicans of the UN system will lead American policy-makers to block any efforts to empower developing countries. He also characterises Japan and Germany as distracted supporters of fundamental UN reform - Japan due to its growing regional focus and Germany due to its preoccupation with economic and environmental issues. The conclusion therefore is that if the G7 are indifferent, then fundamental reform is unlikely.

This defeatist line of argument does not take into account the power of developing countries as a bloc to bring about change. The NAM consists of 114 developing countries, which makes up almost two-thirds of the General Assembly, and its power to influence UN reform should not be underestimated. The UN Secretary General has publicly recognised the importance of positions taken by NAM, suggesting that objections held by NAM members as a whole would probably prevent certain proposals from being realised. Kofi Annan specifically referred to the objection of NAM members to the provision of a permanent seat to Germany and was of the view that their objection made German inclusion unlikely.

The way forward

The prospects of the above proposal for substantive UN reform being accepted by two-thirds of the General Assembly and the five existing permanent members will largely depend on the political will of Southern countries to compromise and agree on a common position. NAM has proved to be a house divided in the past on many issues but the challenge to South Africa as it heads the organisation over the next three years will be to unite the South. One way in which South Africa can hope to achieve this would be to reach out to civil society organisations within the South, many of which are pro-UN reform, in an effort to get them to influence the views of their governments. It does not seem unrealistic to expect that consensus among developing countries on UN reform can be achieved by the year 2001. Policy-makers should not lose sight of the fact that UN reform of the kind discussed here has enormous ramifications for the future of developing countries.

Shannon L Field was an FGD researcher and is presently working for Canada's Parliamentary Centre for Foreign Affairs in Ottawa.