- The new threat to international peace and security ...
TPSIPOL FORUM: RED 08/01/2007 DEMOCRATIC
Le Monde Diplomatique
July 2007
CLIMATE CHANGE: Oswaldo de Rivero
(*)
The New Threat to International Peace and Security
According to Paul Crutzen Nobel prize are not living in the Holocenio which is the current climate period after the Ice Age, but a new era climate created by the same man who should be called the "Antropocenio." According to Crutzen, this was started in 1790 when James Watt perfected his invention, the steam machine, not knowing it would change the planet's climate history. Indeed, the industrial revolution in full swing shot driven by fossil fuels, highly polluting, coal and oil. Since that time, the amount of CO2 has been steadily increasing in the atmosphere, creating a greenhouse effect that has overheated the climate of our planet. (1)
The planet has warmed 0.6 degrees Celsius and it has been since 1979 that the hottest years recorded. This is the conclusion of the Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on UN Climate Change (IPCC) that integrates 2.500 specialists from over 100 countries. Today, scientists do not doubt that the warming of Earth's climate is a solid reality and a threat to our civilization (1).
One of the most overheated human activities that climate is the urbanization of the planet replicating unstoppable expansion of cities in California that grow addicted to oil, pouring tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, cement planting on agricultural land and unsustainably consuming more and more water, food and energy. Today, almost every city in the world, especially the new contaminated chaotic megalopolis of Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, expand playing the "California model," thereby adding millions of tons of greenhouse gases already accumulated in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. (2)
If greenhouse gas emissions continues to accumulate in the atmosphere and climate overheating, hurricanes, cyclones, torrential rains, floods and El Niño, which devastated cities and areas are whole farm, will become even more destructive. Also, an increase in droughts and desertification affecting food production. Also, the glaciers of the Andes and the Himalayas could disappear dangerously diminishing water supply and consequently of food for millions of people. The Arctic, Greenland and parts of Antarctica melting also suffer which could raise the sea level to cover many islands and coasts where most of humanity.
Melting glaciers will collapse
governance
The most dangerous threat to international security posed by Climate change is the increasing scarcity of water. Water is becoming a strategic resource such as oil and the resulting disputes can become violent internal and international conflicts. The capture of water sources and pollution of water reservoirs are now considered as strategic objectives for both military and terrorist groups.
In the two most populous countries, China and India, water scarcity continues to increase due to urban sprawl "California Model." In China more than 400 cities already have water shortages. India not far behind with severe shortages of water for agriculture and cities. In both countries emerging internal disputes about the lack of water and the unsustainable urban sprawl on agricultural land. Undoubtedly, this situation will worsen when you go disappearing glaciers of the Himalayas and lack of water in the Yellow and Yangtze rivers large in China and Brahmaputra, Ganges in India
How can these two mega-states to overcome the huge problem of the decrease of water resources from its explosive development. Nobody knows. What is certain is that if you decrease the flow of the great rivers of China and India for the shrinkage of glaciers in the Himalayas, we face a huge ecological disaster that will cause serious problems governance in two behemoths that represents a quarter of humanity have nuclear weapons.
not only glaciers in the Himalayas are disappearing, so are making the glaciers of the Andes at a rapid pace, experts may disappear between 15 and 25 years, leaving large cities and agricultural areas of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru without water and thus putting at risk access to food for most of the population is poor. This scarcity of vital resources for survival create more social unrest, increase existing violent conflicts and create new ones, further affecting the governance of the Andean states. (3)
Also, water scarcity can become the current disputes over the use of large flows of international rivers in conflicts between nations. The flow of Tigre and Euphrates rivers being dammed by Turkey to irrigate the region of Anatolia, are also vital to the survival of Iraq and Syria. If there is a tripartite agreement on its use, it is not strange as it may generate a conflict in the future. (4) For Israel, Syria, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, the distribution and use of the Jordan River, so far not well defined, are without doubt the fundamental condition for the existence of a lasting peace between them. You can also arise a conflict by the use of Nile water between Egypt and Ethiopia, due to damming it plans to make this country last part of the flow of this river that is vital to Egypt since Pharaonic times.
land to agricultural use per-capita in the world has declined. All soils, even the richest and the United States are the granaries of the world today suffer degradation. According to the World Bank in 80 developing countries food production has declined. This situation will worsen further with hydrological disasters of climate change. Food, particularly grains, will thus become more scarce and expensive, further affecting the food-importing countries, particularly countries that already suffers from erosion, drought and desertification as the Sahael, Margreb, the Andes, Central Asia, China and India. (5)
Within this context of hydrological disasters, shortages and rising food prices, they may become effective diplomatic weapon that would use the major exporting countries to assert their national interests. Many poor countries are at the mercy of food aid will be a kind of beggars states will suffer food crisis and infighting that will become ungovernable.
Ecology is linked to violence
Professor Homer-Dixon has done perhaps the most thorough studies on the link between environmental degradation and violence, sees the emergence of Sendero Luminoso in Ayacucho region, not only due to reasons ideological but also to ecological factors, because before the outbreak of the subversion, the density of the Ayacucho population grew significantly to reach 12.1 inhabitants per km2 while agricultural land decreased to 0.2 hectares per person. This made the per capita income fell, and thus access to sufficient food. According to this specialist, also increased population density and limited agriculture were factors of the insurgency in sheets, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa and now in Darfur (Sudan) (6)
The impact of climate change on international security are clearly visible when the Program Environment UN says that in the year 2010, environmental refugees could, no less, to reach 50 million as a result of the increased intensity of hydrological disasters. National Geographic also announces consequences that would change the geopolitical map of the world. According to this magazine if Greenland continues to melt as quickly, the sea level could go up up to three meters in 2100. This increase will eliminate flooding islands and coastlines severely important as Florida, Holland and the great deltas of the Nile, Ganges and Brahmaputra, causing massive population movements into neighboring regions also populated, thereby giving rise to conflicts.
most fragile countries address climate change and more likely to suffer serious social and political turmoil are those who are now the highest in the world urban population growth combined with the lowest per-capita consumption of water and food world. These countries are: Afghanistan, Angola, Algeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, Cameroon, North Korea, Cote d'Ivoire, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jordan, Kenya, Liberia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, PERU, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda , Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe. This group must be added the 46 countries that are islands threatened by rising sea levels.
This large number of countries, representing billions of people, whose viability as urban societies is threatened by climate change confirms that this emerging link between environmental degradation and internal and international turmoil. For these reasons, when I was Ambassador of Peru to the United Nations, initiate coordination with colleagues from countries that are ecologically fragile, especially with the ambassadors of the island states to get them to give the highest consideration to climate change as a new threat to peace and security.
This coordination of interests between Peru and threatened by the loss of glaciers and island states threatened by rising oceans, was instrumental in achieving the number of votes needed to gain entry of Peru to the Security Council. Once in the Council's intention was to request that the supreme organ of the international security debated for the first time open publicly and climate change. My mission at the United Nations term before he could complete the steps to introduce this important issue in the Security Council. However, the income subject thanks to the leadership of Great Britain, thus giving a valuable step in establishing a link between climate change and international security.
Not only the Security Council has begun to recognize the relationship between climate change and international security, but also an important study, no less, that the Pentagon entitled "Climate Change and National Security of the United States" has recognized that acute water shortage and large drought that climate change will affect food production and will cause considerable tension and national and international conflicts. Recently also eleven admirals and generals of the United States issued a report stating that climate change is a threat multiplier to international security. Today, climate change has become a parameter of analysis of international security
Throughout the twentieth century, the growth parameter was hegemonic to predict the fate of nations and the world today but this parameter is not valid For all the economic thought of the last century has is based on the premise that the planet has the capacity to give us perpetual economic growth. This premise is now a fallacy that has no relation to the ecological reality of the Earth. From this century, to learn the fate of the world will become increasingly necessary to replace the economic forecasts for ecological forecasting. In other words, replace the mythology of economic growth data of predation planetary scientists.
Geneva, July 2007.
(1) The New York Times. May 9, 2005
(2) Oswaldo de Rivero. The Myth of Development p. 233. Lima 2006
FEC (3) France Press.7 August 2005
(4) Le Dessous de Cartes. 206 p. Editor Taillandier. Paris 2006
(5) Ibid p. 220
(6) Thomas F. Homer Dixon. Enviroment, Scarcity and Violence. Princeton University Press 1999
(7) Oswaldo de Rivero. Op cit. P. 286
* Ambassador, former representation before the UN Security Council.
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